Missing Person: Murdered or Suicide? The Passage of Time Changes the Chances

The Longer a Person Is Missing, the More Likely It’s Murder

By: Shane Lambert
Original Time of Writing: August 22nd, 2025

When someone vanishes, leaving a final message of distress or danger, families and investigators can face a haunting question: did the missing person (MP) die by suicide, or was their life taken? In missing persons cases where evidence points to suicide or murder as the two leading explanations for why the person disappeared, time offers a clue. I propose that the longer a person remains missing, the more probable it is they were murdered. This isn’t absolute but a likelihood driven by the difference in willpower between a deceased person and a killer intent on concealment.

Why Willpower Shapes Missing Persons Cases

In these cases, a distressing final communication—perhaps a cry for help or hint of danger—suggests two scenarios. Suicide implies the person acted alone, their distress leading to a tragic end. Murder involves another’s actions, with the perpetrator hiding their crime. The difference lies in willpower: a suicide victim’s willpower ceases at death, leaving their body where it fell, often near a known location like their home or car. A murderer, however, uses ongoing willpower to conceal the body—burying it, submerging it, or moving it far away—delaying discovery, sometimes for years or generations.

How Time Signals Murder Over Suicide

Time is critical. If a body isn’t found within days or weeks, the probability of murder rises. Suicide victims, lacking post-death willpower, are typically found during initial searches in familiar areas. A killer’s deliberate concealment, driven by the will to evade justice, makes prolonged absence more likely.

Investigative patterns support this: police first search areas tied to the MP’s life, expecting suicide victims nearby. When searches fail, suspicion shifts to homicide, as extended absence suggests the body was moved beyond expected zones.

Addressing Exceptions in Suicide Cases

This isn’t absolute. Some suicides lead to prolonged absence. Individuals may use pre-death willpower to seek privacy in remote locations like forests or mountains, or jump into rivers where currents hide remains. These cases mimic murder’s extended absence but rely on natural factors—water, wildlife, or terrain—rather than a killer’s sustained concealment.

But I do think that a murderer’s calculated steps, like burying or relocating a body, are more likely to thwart investigation long-term than a suicide victim’s final act. When suicide is accompanied by long-term concealment, I think it's due to unlikely circumstances being present.

Implications for Families and Investigations

For families, the uncertainty of these cases is excruciating. My perspective offers a lens, not a definitive answer: prolonged absence increases the likelihood of a killer’s willpower at play. This probability could push investigators to prioritize homicide inquiries sooner, offering families a path to closure. Cases of victims found in hidden graves often reveal a killer’s concealment, unlike suicides, which are typically discovered earlier. While each case demands individual scrutiny, time whispers a truth: the longer someone is missing, the more likely murder is the cause.