Missing Person Risk Factors: "Went Missing After a Party"

By: Shane Lambert
Original Time of Writing: January 28th, 2025

Occasionally, I look at cases of missing persons grouped together by a commonality. For instance, I have looked at several cases where women who experienced car troubles went missing. In another similar article, I looked at people who went missing off of a hiking trails. Other people have noted that missing people are often involved in hitchhiking. 

When looking at cases involving missing people, I believe that the same kinds of events play out over and over again. Details certainly vary but in looking at what unifies cases, we can brainstorm the risk factors with regard to what's present when someone goes missing. Today, I will be looking at a few cases involving people who have gone missing after attending a party.

The tag I have chosen for this category of missing people is "went missing after a party." At the original time of writing, I only had tagged three cases with this phrase.

• Ryan Shtuka, who went missing in Sun Peaks, British Columbia after attending a party in 2018.
• Alexis Scott, who went missing in Peoria, Illinois after attending a party in 2017.
• Tavia Elizabeth Bailey, who went missing after attending a party in 1985.

Missing People, Parties, and Risk Factors

I think the following are the main risk factors concerning missing people and parties:

1. The missing person is more likely to be drunk or high on drugs.
2. The people who are around the missing person are more likely to be drunk or high on drugs.
3. People who leave parties often do so at a dangerous time of night.

Each one of these bullets cold be expanded on. But it should be pointed out that they may or may not be present in all missing person's cases where someone disappears after a party.

With regard to the first point, the person who goes missing after attending a party could be viewed as at increased risk due to his or her senses being less acute due to alcohol and drunk usage at the party. Your ability to sense danger goes down the drunker or higher you are. This could make someone an easy target for a predator. Furthermore, on the return home from the party, reduced senses could increase someone's chances of being in an accident.

With regard to the second point, I would think that there are people out there that might not commit major crimes while 'normal.' But anyone with enough life experience will tell you that they know someone who was a completely different animal when using drugs or alcohol. These substances can make ordinary people more dangerous as they lose their inhibitions.

Concerning the third point, the late-night setting for most parties is a big risk factor. I've worked probably about a thousand night shifts in my life at hotels and I am a night owl by nature. I'm usually awake between the hours of 10PM and 5AM, unlike most people.

What I've noticed is that the time frame between 2:15AM and 3:45AM is the most dangerous time of night on average. The pre-2:15 AM crowd is usually people going home or back to their hotel rooms after businesses close. They can be loud but I would not call them dangerous for that reason alone. The people who are active around 4:00 AM are often just very early risers.

It's people who are loitering or active between 2:15 AM and 3:45 AM who are usually something different. It's this time of night when parties seem to slow down due to fatigue or even noise complaints.

Furthemore, there are a lot of dangerous people on the streets during this time frame. A lot of clandestine people like to operate when everyone else is sleeping. However, there's also just drug and alcohol usage from the public.

With regard to Ryan Shtuka's case, I felt that he may have been hit and subsequently disappeared by a drunk driver. On this matter, there are fewer witnesses to crimes at the late-night hours and that can be a factor in people going missing. Someone who is a victim of a pedestrian-vehicle accident at 2PM will likely be seen by numerous people. That's different than at 2AM, for example. The late-night hours create opporuntinities to disappear people that are not present on the same scale midday.

Looking at the three cases above, Tavia Bailey was thought to have been abducted, presumably while walking home from a party. You could see how all three of the risk factors could be relevant in her case

One common opinion with Ryan Shtuka is that he may have been hit by a vehicle while walking home from a party and then the driver disappeared him instead of facing the rap. You can see how all three of the risk factors could be part of his case.

With Alexis Scott's disappearance, it's not really known if she left the party or not with modern news saying that she didn't. You can see how the first two points could be relevant and possibly the final one.

I will be adding the tag "went missing after a party" for any relevant case as I continue to build the site. In a nutshell, I would say it's just drugs, alcohol, and the fact that the streets are dangerous at night that are the factors fueling these kinds of cases.

Missing Trail Hikers -- Recognizing the Patterns

Author: Shane Lambert
Original time of writing: April 7th, 2021

Introduction to Missing Trail Hikers

I have been looking at both NamUs and Canada's Missing databases for missing people for the last couple of weeks. In particular, I have been interested in missing person cases where a hiking trail is central to the disappearance. The tag I've associated with all blog posts at this site that have to do a trail and/or a missing hiker is "trail hiking series." You can find this hashtag at the end of this blog post. By clicking on it, you will bring up all the related articles.

When I first thought of the "trail hiking series," admittedly, I wanted to look at about 40 cases that involved trails and/or hiking. However, I have fallen short of that for the time being. Nonetheless, even in a small sample space of cases, I've been able to recognize a couple of distinct patterns with missing people whose case files are associated with nature trails and/or hiking. Please, have a look at the two patterns below that emerged as I studied several cases.

Lost Hikers: Recognizing the Patterns

Pattern #1: An unfit, unequipped, and solo hiker uses a dangerous trail. He or she is not heard from again but his or her vehicle is found at the trailhead or parking lot for the park or trail network.

I selected six cases where Pattern #1, as described above, fits quite well. However, missing person cases aren't made with a cookie cutter: there are deviations. The six bullet points below restate Pattern #1 and provide an area where I will discuss what I mean by each point. The cases that basically fit the pattern then follow.

(1) The missing person was not fit for the hike. 

• Unfit for a hike could describe someone who was obese, however, it could also mean someone who was injured, had a medical ailment, or needed medication.
• In the six cases I looked at, I recall individuals that were either obese by BMI, walked with a limp, had a heart condition, required medication for seizures, or were well out of their primes.
• Only two of the six missing persons that I looked at, David Barclay Miller and Paula Jean Welden, were seemingly fit individuals in the primes of their lives.
• But even in their cases, a question could be posed if their fitness levels were equal to the trail ahead: Miller, in particular, may have had to burden himself with a very heavy load of water.

(2) The missing person went on a dangerous trail or one that is considered difficult.

• In assessing the danger level of a trail, I relied on AllTrails.com. I also looked at videos of the trails taken by YouTube publishers. 
• What I found was that people who went missing on trails often used dangerous trails. 
• This might seem straightforward forward, but the point is still worth making: though hardly foolproof, it suggests that something accidental happened to them instead of something illegal.
• That's especially likely given the poor physical condition many of them were in.
• I recall one case where an individual hiked in an area that other hikers had deemed unsafe and avoided. I recall a trail that was exceptionally lengthy in one case.
• Also, I recall a multi-day trail through desert conditions. In another instance, I recall a missing person using a trail known for encroaching on steep edges that were often intersected with small waterfalls directly falling on the trail.

(3) This missing person hiked alone, even if he or she was seen by others or informed people of his or her plans. 

• The six cases I include all featured solo hikers. They may have been seen by other hikers or park staff, but none hiked in tandem or in groups.

(4) The missing person failed to supply himself or herself properly. 

• Not bringing water or food or adequate clothing is a significant reoccurrence in the missing person cases. All kinds of ailments can affect someone who doesn't have proper clothing for a hike. Not having enough water can lead to dizziness, confusion, and dehydration. It can also lead to reliance on water sources along the trail, which might cause fevers.

(5) The missing person's abandoned vehicle was found at the trailhead or the parking lot for the trail network.

• This was a significant reoccurrence in the selected missing persons cases involving hiking trails, however, it wasn't 100% pervasive. Paula Jean Welden's case didn't mention a car and that is significant. She was a hitchhiker and, of course, a disappearance due to that risky activity could be what caused her disappearance instead of a hiking-trail mishap.

(6) My opinion: the totality of the circumstances suggests a non-clandestine disappearance (ie. it seems more likely that a hiking accident happened than something criminal in nature). 

• Did the person disappear on purpose, by accident, or due to the criminal actions of someone else? That's always a question in a missing person case.
• However, when I read most of the cases, I did think that the people that disappeared were likely accident victims or victims of the elements as opposed to victims of criminals.
• Paula Jean Welden is a tough case in this regard: she was last seen on a hiking trail, but she had hitchhiked to the trail. There is a question if she tried to hitchhike home or if she got lost in the forest. She was, in fact, lost even before arriving at her chosen trailhead and it was nearly dusk.

Of course, some of the points above could appear and, I'm sure, have appeared as topics in safe-hiking guides. Concerning the first point, you should select a trail that's appropriate for your health and fitness. You should definitely hike in twos or at least use trails that are popular and unrisky if you are alone. You should also bring a lot of water for the trail and some high-calorie food, not to mention a change of clothes or something you can add on as a layer if you end up cold. 

The cases I looked at in developing the six points are as follows. For further details on any case, please follow the link.

Joseph Lee Wood Jr. -- Missing Since July 1999 From Washington

• A man with a heart condition went hiking at high altitude without food or water or adequate clothing. Hikers that saw him last said they turned around due to dangerous conditions, but Joseph seemed to trudge on into those dangerous conditions. His vehicle was found near the trailhead.

Jessie Hoover -- Missing Since May 1983 in Maine

• A middle-aged woman who needed daily medication targeted a multi-day hike without any kind of preparations.

Carol Marlene Ferguson -- Missing From Washington Since 2017

• An 83-year-old woman who may have had dementia went on a difficult trail. Her truck was found near the trailhead.

David Barclay Miller -- Missing in Arizona Since 1998

• A young man went on a multi-day hike in the desert. There was a question as to whether he had enough water. His vehicle was found.

Wayne Falconer Wikel -- Missing Since 1992 From Oregon

• A man approaching his middle-aged years had a limp from a leg injury. He went on a very difficult and dangerous trail that was nearly 30 miles in length. His vehicle was found at the trailhead.

Paula Jean Welden -- Missing Since 1945 From New Hampshire

• She hitchhiked to a trail and arrived just before dusk one evening in December without provisions or warming clothing. 

Pattern #2: A duo or larger group takes to the hiking trails. A woman within the duo or group decides to rest instead of partake in the entire hike. While she rests, others in her duo or larger group complete the hike. When they return to collect the resting woman, she is not there. Furthermore, she's never seen again and it's unclear if something clandestine is involved or if she fell victim to a hiking mishap.

This pattern can be summarized with the following points:

(1) The missing person is a woman. 

• In five of the six cases that I looked at that resembled this pattern, the missing person was a woman.

(2) The missing person is originally part of a duo or larger group that's on a hiking excursion.

• This was present in all cases. Usually, the missing person started out on a hike with a group. But in one case, the missing person started out on a camping excursion.

(3) The missing person voluntarily separates from the group.

• This happened in each case. The reasons for the separations vary, but the missing person stopping to take a rest is common. In another case, the missing person voluntarily went on a separate hike than the group from the origin point. In another case, the missing person had a different walking speed than the group, and that created drifting. In another case, a little boy ran ahead of the group perhaps in youthful excitement.

(4) The missing person is not seen again.

• In only one of the six cases was a trace of the missing person found. In another case, some reported hearing the missing person scream in the night of the forest, but this was not firmly established.

(5) The investigation includes some suspicion of others in the area.

• Abduction is pretty clear in two cases. In another case, it seems that something forceful happened to the missing person. In the three other cases, it could be a hiking mishap, but there are questions surrounding other people on the trail, whether they are members of the missing person's group or not.

As is the case with the first pattern, missing person cases aren't made with cookie cutters. However, the following cases are closely related to the five points above.

A Pattern of Lost Hikers: Many Similar Cases

Olga Mauger -- Missing Since 1934 in Wyoming

The cases of Olga Mauer, Michelle Vanek, and Celeste Hensley Greub are very similar cases. Starting with Mauer, she was in the backcountry with her new husband. They were not hiking enthusiasts but were using hiking trails to scout for wild game. The husband and Olga went out into the mountains and she tired and rested while he hiked to a mountain peak. When the husband returned, Olga was gone and was never seen again although someone in the search party reported hearing her night-time calls for help. The husband came under suspicion in the aftermath but was not charged.

Michelle Vanek -- Missing Since 2005 From Colorado

Michelle Vanek went hiking with a male friend (non-romantic). She stopped to rest while he continued to advance to a summit. When he returned to find her, she was missing and has not been seen again. In this case, there was not much suspicion directed toward the friend. However, this case did mention a transient-type of character that was in the backcountry at the time.

Celeste Hensley Greub -- Missing Since 1976 From Wyoming

Celeste Hensley Greub went hiking in Wyoming with two female friends. The two friends decided to climb a nearby mountain peak while Greub rested alone. When the two friends returned to collect Greub, she was gone and has not been seen since. This case did not involve much discussion of suspicion, however, there was an indication that she was in a troubled marriage and may have been despondent.

Rosemary Theresa Kunst -- Missing in California Since 2000

Rosemary Theresa Kunst went on a camping trip with a large group. Most of the members of this group departed out on a hike, while Theresa stayed at the camp. However, she decided to embark on a short hike from the camp. When the hikers in the large group returned to camp, they did not know where Rosemary was. Eventually, a search ensued and only a tuft of her hair was found entangled in the wild-brush.

This case is a little different from the five summary points. Rosemary didn't separate from the hikers that she was on a hike with. Rather, she went on a different hike than what her fellow-campers went on. Furthermore, there was a trace of her as the hair that was found was tested to be hers. The circumstances seemed suspicious to me because I think the hair being yanked from her head, even by wild-brush, suggests that something forceful was happening to her.

Trenny Gibson - Missing Since 1976 in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park.

Trenny Gibson went on a school field trip with her classmates to Great Smoky Mountains National Park. The trip involved taking an out-and-back trail. During this trip, she became isolated on the trail from her classmates. I got the impression this had to do with her having a different walking speed over a long trail. Sometime during this isolated time, Trenny disappeared and has not been seen again. This is a case that has involved plenty of suspicion against a classmate, suspicion that I've felt was not warranted. Bloodhounds that tracked Trenny's movements lead to a roadside disappearance off of the trail. One prevailing guess is that she was abducted by a stranger, possibly at knifepoint or gunpoint.

Thomas Eldon Bowman -- Missing in California Since 1957 

Thomas Eldon Bowman is the only male in this list. A young minor, he was hiking on a family outing and became separated from the group when he ran ahead to the parking lot toward the end of the outing. He has not been seen since. He was thought to have been a kidnapping victim as opposed to the victim of a hiking-trail accident.

Missing Kids and Their Bicycles - Cases of Dario Cicolecchia, Janice Pockett, and Others

By: Shane Lambert

Season 2 of Forensic Files included an episode (Episode 12) that offers key insights for those studying missing persons cases. The episode covers the 1993 disappearance of Dario Cicolecchia, a boy in Switzerland, whose case led to a murderer’s capture and revealing statements about his methods. This case provides a nugget of information worth considering for similar mysteries.

Dario Goes Missing: Secluded Area, Unwittingly Leaves Trail for Pedophile to Follow

Dario went missing after leaving home on a bicycle to go fishing. He was later found dead and mutilated in a Swiss cornfield. Forensic medicine revealed he was drowned, with diatoms (one-celled organisms found in water) in his lungs. These diatoms matched a nearby creek, pinpointing the murder location, and were also found in the suspect’s car, linking the victim, car, and crime scene.

The convicted murderer, Roland Kubler, was featured in the *Forensic Files* episode “Micro-clues” (December 18, 1997), which examined his actions.

Note the Bicycle in this Case: It Acts As a Trail to Follow

Kubler claimed he spotted Dario’s bicycle near the road, signaling a young boy nearby. This triggered his actions, leading to Dario’s murder. He didn’t actively seek bicycles but stumbled upon one during other activities. This is notable because other missing children cases, where only bicycles are found, may follow a similar pattern. A visible bicycle could act as a trigger for a predator in a secluded area.

Is Roland Kubler Now Dead?

A Reddit discussion suggested Roland Kubler is deceased, but this lacks verification due to the informal nature of community forums. The Serial Killer Database Wiki lists him under ‘Dead Serial Killers,’ but without confirmed details from Swiss sources, his status remains unverified.

Janice Pockett Left Her Bicycle Visible Before Disappearing

Janice Pockett, missing from Tolland, Connecticut since July 26, 1973, rode her green banana-seat bicycle to a wooded area to retrieve a butterfly. Her bike was found near a road, but she vanished. This mirrors Dario’s case, suggesting a predator may have noticed her bike, prompting an investigation of the area.

Vicki Lynn Hoskinson Disappearance: A Child’s Bicycle is a Clue Again

In another case, Vicki Lynn Hoskinson (*Forensic Files* Season 3, Episode 11, “Speck of Evidence”) left a bicycle behind, as noted in a recent article. A child’s bicycle may act as an ‘advertisement’ to a predator, suggesting a young person nearby. In non-family abductions, items like bicycles, scooters, or skateboards could be key clues, indicating a serial predator noticed them.

This pattern suggests victims were pursued rather than randomly encountered. For more related mysteries, see: Women With Car Troubles Go Missing | Missing Person Phenomenon -- Bloodhounds Tracking Ends at Roadside

Support more mystery content! Consider donating to keep this blog going.

Women With Car Troubles Go Missing: The Cases of Robin Graham, Kelly Dae Wilson, Cindy Lee Mellin, and More

By: Shane Lambert

Robin Graham disappeared in the early hours of the morning on November 14th, 1970. She was driving home from her place of employment, Pier 1 at 5711 Hollywood Boulevard, when something went wrong with her vehicle (employment address as per a landing page for her at Ancestry.com). For those interested in tracing her route, I think she was traveling to 2227 Lemoyne Street in Los Angeles. 

Her disappearance is noteworthy for a couple of reasons.

Firstly, it caused the LAPD to enact a policy change. A police officer saw her in the minutes before she disappeared, but he left her alone. After her disappearance, police officers were required to stay with stranded female motorists.

Secondly, her disappearance and probable murder can be compared to other disappearances of women where some kind of vehicle mishap is part of the chain of events surrounding the disappearance.

Robin Graham

Robin Ann Graham's details:

Last seen: About 2:30am on November 14th, 1970
Born: June 22nd, 1952 (18 years old at the time of disappearance)
Physical: white female, 66" (5'6") and 125 pounds, brown eyes and hair
Clothing/accessories: red blouse, blue jeans, dark-blue corduroy jacket, red-clog shoes, and leather purse

NamUs' description of the event (paraphrased):

A California Highway Patrol officer was the last person to see Robin Graham on November 14th, 1970. She had been driving her boyfriend's vehicle when she apparently ran out of gas and stalled on U.S. Highway 101 southbound near the Santa Monica Boulevard offramp at about 2:00 am.

The officer stopped to see if she needed help, but Ms. Graham said that help was already coming. She had just called her parents to inform them of her situation.

Later, the officer noticed a white male, 25-26 years of age, 5'8" with dark hair, wearing bell-bottom trousers and a white turtle neck top talking to her. A 1958-1960 light blue Corvette hardtop was observed parked behind her vehicle at this time. The officer later assumed the man in the Corvette was the help she had called for. The next day, her parents searched for Robin and found her car, locked up and abandoned on the side of the freeway where she was last seen. She hasn't been heard from since. 

Inconsistency regarding man's description

The description of the man may or may not be entirely accurate with NamUS. The following (left margin below) is excerpted from the Nov. 19th, 1970 Valley News (Van Nuys, California) regarding the patrolman's description. It describes a "blond-haired man" instead of a dark-haired one. The range of dates for the Corvette is also a little off between the two sources (ie. NamUs is 1958 to 1960 while the article says '57 to '59). I found a 1960 light-blue Corvette convertible picture and posted it below. When it comes to contradictions between NamUs and media sources, there's no way to know who to show a preference for. Certainly, both the media and NamUs can be error-riddled.

1960 Chevrolet Corvette Fuelie
 (Creative Commons/Rex Gray on Flickr) - Not a car expert;
If you can suggest a better photo, then it's welcome.

NamUs wrong about the time of parents discovering vehicle

The penultimate statement in the NamUs description above may be incorrect or confusing. According to the newspaper articles I read from 1970 her parents did not discover her car "The next day" but rather they discovered it at 2:30am, a half-hour after she was last seen. See the snipping below from The Capital Journal (December 12th, 1970/page 11).

The same article discusses the change in police procedures when it came to stranded female motorists. 

The Robin Graham case may not simply be a case of a criminal taking advantage of an opportunity where he finds a young woman vulnerable. Women who meet an abductor after car trouble may actually have had their car tampered with by the actual abductor. Graham ran out of gas and it's possible that the gas may have been siphoned by the abductor himself as part of a modus operandi. Consider the following cases below where car trouble is central to the abduction of a woman. Note, in many of the cases below the car trouble was caused by the man that harmed the woman.

Kathleen Johns

Kathleen Johns was driving at night in a rural location when she was summoned to pull over in March of 1970 by a fellow driver, a male. He advised her that she had a problem with her tire. The man then 'helped' her by loosening the tire and when Johns drove away the tire fell off. The 'helpful' man then offered to drive Johns and her child to a service station.

Of course, this man may have been The Zodiac Killer. However, the point to be aware of is that the 'Good Samaritan' that shows up to help a distressed female motorist might be her mortal enemy. Whether by loosening a tire or some other sabotage, he may have caused the problem with the vehicle himself in hopes of putting the woman into a vulnerable situation.

Julia Ashe

Sedrick Cobb lurked in mall parking lots. According to writer David Krajicek, Cobb "used a valve stem remover to deflate a tire on the car of likely victims, then offered to change the flats when they returned from shopping" (Dec. 31 2013 article/Daily News). Cobb, employing this tactic, earned the trust of a woman before he raped and murdered her. That woman's name was Julia Ashe and the year was 1989. The blurb below from the September 13th, 1991 issue of The Hartford Courant accounts of some of the details:

The point to take away from the Ashe rape and murder, once again, is that the man that shows up to 'help' a woman with car trouble may have caused the car trouble himself.

Rose Tashman

Rose Tashman's unsolved murder has been mentioned in conjunction with the Robin Graham disappearance for decades. William J. Drummond, a writer, made comparisons between Graham and Tashman in The Los Angeles Times on November 18th, 1970.

In this case, it's not clear that Tashman's flat tire was caused by someone that wanted to help her. But that car trouble can precede the disappearance or murder of a young woman can't be overlooked. The criminals may simply be opportunists as opposed to carrying out a modus operandi involving vehicle sabotage. However, more examples could still be looked at.

Cindy Lee Mellin

Cindy Lee Mellin, also often mentioned in conjunction with Graham, was last seen in a mall parking lot in 1970 in Ventura, California. According to NamUs (#6849) "She was last seen standing next to her car in the shopping center parking lot while an unidentified male changed her tire. When she failed to return home that night, her father went to the shopping center looking for her and found her car still up on a jack with the flat tire still attached." That description certainly leaves much to the imagination. But it's not a stretcher to assume that the man that pretended to want to help her actually had more sinister motives in mind.

Kelly Dae Wilson

Kelly Dae Wilson is yet another example of a missing woman who had car trouble at around the time of her disappearance. Wilson went missing in Upshur County, Texas in 1993 after completing a shift at a video store. She is NamUs MP #6816. On the night that she went missing one of the tires of her vehicle was slashed. The following timeline of events, in this case, was published as per the details below (click to enlargen):

Note that Michael Biby, who went to high school with Wilson, served jail time for slashing her tire. If he did not disappear Wilson then it's very possible that the slashed tire made her vulnerable to an opportunist.

Conclusion

It's certainly soul-destroying to learn that someone who seems like a Good Samaritan is actually in the midst of committing a heinous crime. But the lessons of the missing-person's cases or murders mentioned above can't be ignored.

For the women readers, if you are facing car trouble and a man arrives to help you then you have to be skeptical: Mr. Johnny-on-the-spot with the perfect tool handy to fix your car might be the reincarnation of Jack the Ripper. That statement might wreak of paranoia to some, but minimally I would argue that you shouldn't stop driving if your vehicle is operational, even if someone is trying to flag you down. Get to a well-viewed area with lots of people around. Additionally, I would recommend not going to a secondary site with a Good Samaritan, whether that be in his car or yours.