Showing posts with label San Francisco. Show all posts
Showing posts with label San Francisco. Show all posts

David Carpenter: How Luck Helped the Trailside Killer Evade the FBI for Years

By: Shane Lambert
Original time of writing: March 3rd, 2025

YouTube Channel: The Infographics Show
Publication date: March 3rd, 2025
Episode: Why FBI FAILED To Catch The Trailside Killer Sooner

 

I recently stumbled across a gripping documentary on The Infographics Show titled "Why FBI FAILED To Catch The Trailside Killer Sooner." It dives into the chilling crimes of David Carpenter, a San Francisco serial killer who stalked lone hikers in the 1970s and ‘80s. At 94, he’s still alive in prison as of March 2025, yet his story remains oddly under-the-radar. What shocked me most? How a single eyewitness blunder – and a stroke of luck – threw the FBI off his trail for years. Here’s why this case deserves more attention – and how it echoes other infamous killers like the Zodiac.

 

The Trailside Killer, David Carpenter, targeted trail hikers, primarily women, in secluded San Francisco-area parks decades ago. With his death likely nearing due to age and incarceration, could new evidence still emerge? His crimes resurfaced in 2019 headlines at People magazine (Robyn Merrett/April 17th, 2019), revealing a survivor whose child became a TV celebrity – a twist The Infographics Show highlighted too.

 

I’d never heard of this San Francisco serial killer before, making this one of the best The Infographics Show episodes I’ve seen recently. Curious about the case? Watch the documentary below and share your thoughts!

 

Comparisons to Infamous Serial Killers

The 1960s and 1970s San Francisco Bay Area conjures thoughts of The Zodiac Killer, but The Infographics Show compared Carpenter to Edmund Kemper, Ted Bundy, and John Wayne Gacy. I’d argue his crimes align more with The Zodiac Killer and The Original Night Stalker (Joseph James DeAngelo).

 

Here’s why:

  • Zodiac Killer: Both stalked victims in parks (e.g., Zodiac’s Lake Berryessa attack) using knives and guns.
  • Original Night Stalker: Sexual motives drove Carpenter, mirroring DeAngelo’s escalation.

 

These parallels make Carpenter a haunting figure in true crime history.

 

The Eyewitness Error That Stalled the Hunt – and Luck That Saved Him

Why did the FBI take so long to catch David Carpenter? The answer blends a flawed eyewitness account with sheer luck. Operating in secluded trails, Carpenter was spotted during an early murder by a hidden witness. Her description – a handsome young man – clashed with reality: Carpenter was nearly 50 and unremarkable-looking. This sent police chasing a phantom, while Carpenter’s ordinary appearance let him blend in, dodging suspicion time and again.

 

Eyewitness errors aren’t rare. Stress and distance can distort memory, as seen in cases like Ted Bundy’s, where his charm skewed perceptions. Studies show eyewitness accuracy drops under pressure – a lesson from Carpenter’s case that still resonates today. Luck only stretched so far, but it bought him years.

 

Trails Turned Deadly: Carpenter’s Hunting Grounds

Trail hiking is a recurring theme at Missing Persons Commentary. While Carpenter’s victims aren’t missing persons, his tactics – luring hikers to isolation – mirror risks I’ve explored in cases like Trenny Gibson’s 1976 disappearance. My trail hiking series [link] dives into such mysteries. Could serial killers explain some unsolved vanishings? Carpenter’s story suggests it’s possible.

 

For more on trail-related mysteries, check out my series on missing hikers here.

 

 

Have you heard of the Trailside Killer before? Let me know in the comments!

Jian Fang (Unsolved Mysteries with Robert Stack) - Businessperson, Murder Victim....and Welcher?

By: Shane Lambert

Original time of writing: January 18th, 2025

Today, I partook in an old hobby of mine. I watched some old episodes of Unsolved Mysteries, the hit television show from the 1980s and 1990s starring Robert Stack as the host. The episode I watched, in part, was from Season 6, Episode 11 (aired March 3rd, 1995) and it was available on YouTube at the original time of writing. I focused on the first topic of the episode, the 1993 murder of a San Francisco businessman named Jian Fang.


Fang's Murder: As Presented on the Unsolved Mysteries episode

Fang was the owner of a prominent noodle factory. As presented in the episode of Unsolved Mysteries, on December 18th, 1993, Fang left work with a supervisor in his factory. This supervisor (called a foreman in the media) was a woman whom he was giving a ride home. Presumptively, she has nothing to do with the crime. As presented in the TV show, Fang offered her a ride. If true, that would mean she was not a willing participant in this sordid affair but was a "wrong place at the wrong time" kind of actor in this scene.

Unbeknownst to either him or the woman, two assailants had entered Fang's vehicle where they lay in waiting. Shortly after Fang drove away, these assailants emerged from the backseat to rob Mr. Fang.

One of the assailants fashioned a knife, which was described as little more than a cheap kitchen knife. After arguing with Mr. Fang for some time, a commotion ensued. As presented in the Unsolved Mysteries episode, the assailant who fashioned the knife stabbed Mr. Fang in this commotion. The blade pierced his heart, leading to Mr. Fang's death.

The woman in the vehicle was threatened but she was spared. After two hours, she contacted help.

Amateur Sleuths Offer Their Opinions

In the episode, a group of amateurs are asked their thoughts on the case. Let's call them Pre-Internet Websleuths. 

I did one like one of the theories that was presented in the episode. Mainly, one of the students suggested that Mr. Fang was murdered as a result of his affiliation with sports gambling circles. His affiliation with such activities was mentioned in the episode.

Back in 1993, sports gambling was not generally legal in the USA. It was only during Donald Trump's first tenure as president that sports gambling enjoyed broader legalization. Before Trump, it was Las Vegas and casinos on Indian reservations where gambling was allowed. I think you could also gamble at some weird locations, like on a riverboat situated on a river that acted as a border between two states. 

Regardless, you couldn't gamble on sports as much as you can today in the USA. The article below is from San Francisco in 1993.

The San Francisco Examiner
September 24th, 1993.

That gambling was more than just frowned upon in 1993 -- it was illegal in many American locations -- is important to note for a couple of reasons for this case. Firstly, we learn something about the murder victim. It's important not to put a murder victim on a pedestal, which I think some amateurs do.

If he was into sports gambling circles in 1993 in California, then Mr. Fang wasn't the type of citizen who followed the law religiously. I don't think sports gambling is that bad of a crime. I would say it was more like smoking marijuana and maybe not quite as bad as participating in prostitution. But Mr. Fang must have been a willing member of some clandestine circles and that's important because it can call his character into question a bit.

Secondly, when an industry is illegal, then there is no legal forum to enforce non-payment of debts. This happens in drug trafficking. When someone owes a debt over drugs, that person cannot just litigate against the other party because it would be incriminating. It makes the drug industry inherently violent. 

In the world of clandestine sports betting, there was no way to enforce winning bets. When you gamble on sports legally through a casino or sportsbook, there are legal parameters that must be adhered to. When you gamble illegally, bets can be welched on much easier. That can make illegal sports betting rife with intimidation and violence.

The theorist that I liked in the episode stated that Mr. Fang might have won a bet against the assailants. They then were poor sports and, after paying the bet, tried to rob Mr. Fang to recover their losses. I think there's a bit of a bias here to see the murder victim as a saint in life. In contrast, I would simply suggest that the robbers were trying to collect a bet that Mr. Fang might have welched on.

From this perspective, that Mr. Fang was not the perfect citizen is important. He participated in clandestine activities when he made illicit sports bets. His character wasn't perfect and, accordingly, perhaps he was a welcher in unregulated sports gambling.

My scenario for this murder (opinion)

The San Francisco Examiner
September 29th, 1994.

The assailants stalked Mr. Fang, I'm sure of this. They knew his vehicle, and where it would be parked, and they seemed to know the route he would take from his workplace to his vehicle. That's clear because they broke a window to get into his vehicle. They must have picked a window that Mr. Fang wouldn't see on his approach as that's the only way they would go undetected after breaking into the vehicle.

The assailants broke the back window of Mr. Fang's car. There must have been a degree of confidence in their belief that Mr. Fang wouldn't approach that way nor go to the back of the car to load it. I think that would have required some stalking and planning.

The assailant who stabbed Mr. Fang probably did so in panic or accidentally. I do not think that these were hardened criminals the day that they planned to collect on what I believe was a genuine gambling debt. The assailant left the basic kitchen knife at the murder scene. Any mafioso-type killer probably would not do that. I think leaving the actual murder weapon at the scene of the crime is the mistake of a novice criminal. This was a robbery that escalated into a murder, in my opinion. The detective in the Unsolved Mysteries episode seemed to think the same thing.

Who did it? I think this theory would point toward someone that Mr. Fang owed money to after losing a bet. While that doesn't name a name, I think it makes more sense than the other theories presented in the episode.

Newspaper Clipping Details

  • The suspects were thought to be younger than 30.
  • There was a BB gun near the crime scene.
  • He was killed on a Saturday night during the NFL season, which plays on Sunday (it was suggested in an article that Mr. Fang might have had a lot of money on him at that time because football is heavily bet on).
  • The detective in the case thought that there might have been a third assailant, a getaway driver.
One thing that didn't add up was the timing. One newspaper source so it was almost midnight on December 18th, 1993 when Mr. Fang walked out to his vehicle. In the Unsolved Mysteries episode, the drama in the vehicle is described as taking almost half of an hour to unfold. When I play that timeline out, I have Mr. Fang being murdered very early on December 19th, 1993 as opposed to very late on the 18th. However, the point may be moot.

Jian Fang: What Happened After the Unsolved Mysteries Episode?

  • I did not find any newspaper articles or online media that stated that this murder had been solved since 1993.



Deborah Dubs - Missing Since July 1984 from San Francisco


Missing Person: Deborah Dubs


Details from a government source (might be paraphrased): Deborah Dubs was last seen on July 25th, 1984 in San Francisco, CA. Also missing is her husband, Harvey, 30, and their 16-month-old son, Sean. Based on the evidence, I think a reasonable guess as to what happened to them can be made.
Last contact: July 25th, 1984 (Wednesday)
Last seen: Their Mission District home (100 block of Yukon Street); Upper Market area, just off of  Market Steeet.
Age when Deborah Dubs disappeared: 33
Sex: Female
Height in inches: 64, which is 5'4"
Weight in pounds (lbs): 107
Ethnicity: White/Caucasian
Hair color: Brown
Eye Color: Brown
Scar or distinctive characteristic: Tracheotomy scar

Clothing and Accessories: Leather purse, white blouse with horizontal stripes, dark slacks, sandals, and loafers
Maiden name: Deborah Ann Nourse
Vehicle:1980 Volkswagen Rabbit. Tan/Beige, Four door. Plate: 3A06195 (CA), which was found near the San Francisco Airport on August 1st in the airport's long-term parking lot with the doors unlocked.

Link to government source: https://www.namus.gov/MissingPersons/Case#/10208?nav

Commentary and Research

By: Shane Lambert

Deborah Dubs disappeared in late July 1984. The last time she was seen was on July 25th of that year. Her disappearance happened at the same time as her husband Harvey and their 15-to-16-month-old son, Sean Christopher Dubs.

The first instance of journalism I found about this case appeared on July 31st, 1984 in the Oakland Tribune. Here are the pointers of the early journalism:
  • Deborah's father, James Nourse, received a phone call from an unidentified man saying that the couple was going to Washington State for a few weeks;
  • Neighbors reported seeing people going in and out of their apartment;
  • Someone drove off with their car;
  • Harvey's employer also received a phone call saying that he was going to Washington; the man who phoned called himself "Jim Bright";
  • On July 26th, there was a commotion outside of the apartment and an Asian man was spotted carrying duffel bags down the street; this Asian man was probably serial killer Charles Ng, although this was not known at the time;
  • The then-unknown Asian man is the one who drove away in the Dubs' Volkswagen but this was called unverified in another article in early journalism;
  • Three days after their disappearance reportedly someone tried to break into the apartment;
  • A man came out and entered a Dodge Dart where two other men were waiting.


In the early journalism, it was also mentioned that Harvey Dubs did video work as a side job. Something to do with this was thought to be a possible reason for his disappearance and his family's. It''s possible that a classified advertisement led the wrong kind of people to the Dubs family. 

Has Deborah Dubs been found?

Although the car was found at the airport, the police had no evidence that the couple had taken a flight. But Deborah's credit card was used twice in the days after her disappearance. On both days, it was credit card fraud. This was reported on August 17th, 1984. The first instance of credit card fraud was on July 26th while the second was the next night. Both involved petty restaurant food purchases.

August 17th, 1984. San Francisco Examiner.

August 18th, 1984. San Francisco Examiner.

August 18th, 1984. San Francisco Examiner.

The journalism died down after the restaurant credit card transactions. However, it heated back up in June 1985. Someone named Paul Cosner went missing and it was thought that his case might be related to the missing Dubs' family. Cosner is still missing as of the time of this blog post. Cosner and Harvey Dubs had both placed classified ads in the time frame leading up to their disappearances. Cosner was selling a car while Dubs was offering video services.

In journalism from June 1985, the composite sketch of the Asian man above from the restaurant credit card fraud is thought to be the same Asian man who carted things out of the Dubs' apartment. The names Leonard Lake and Charles Ng soon emerged in journalism about the disappearance of Deborah Dubs and her family.




The evidence, in this case, suggested that Deborah Dubs was in the custody of serial killers Charles Chitat Ng and Leonard Lake. The former was convicted of her murder while the latter committed suicide. According to Ng's Wikipedia page, Deborah Dubs was seen on a videotape of Ng's being assaulted so severely that she could not have survived. Her remains might be among those found in a makeshift grave involving burned human ashes and bone fragments. Her fate is largely known and if she was in the makeshift grave, then it's possible that all work on finding her will be futile. Charles Ng, at the time of writing, was imprisoned and on death row in California.

Crystal Ann Fox -- Missing from California Since December 2008

Details from NamUs**: "Her 1996 Toyota Tercel had been found abandoned in a parking area next to the Golden Gate bridge on or about the 30th of December, 2008. She had...lost her job and...had been selling her possessions and had ended a relationship. She had been living on her own for close to 6 years. She never asked for help...She has lived in...Sacramento area..Middletown, Pennsylvania. She spent most of her life in South Florida Tamarac. She was a graduate of Taravella High School."
 

Missing Person: Crystal Ann Fox
Could be referred to as: Crys
Last-contact date: December 30th, 2008, as per NamUs (Disputed: this appears to have been the date when her car was found. CharleyProject states her last contact was December 11th, 2008.)
The area where the MP was last seen: Sacramento, California
Link to government source: NamUs MP



VITAL DETAILS

Ethnicity: Caucasian
Sex: Female
Age at time of disappearance: 29 years old
Birthdate: Crystal Ann Fox was born between December 31st, 1978, and December 30th, 1979 based on her reported age at the last date of reported contact.
Hair: Blond/strawberry, short but long on one side; she would frequently dye her hair
Eyes: Hazel, possibly wearing colored contacts and would wear glasses
Scar: Scar under her left breast from a chest tube as an infant
Height/weight: 5'6" and 95 pounds
BMI*: In this case, the missing person was underweight by BMI at the time of the disappearance.
Tattoos: Crystal Ann Fox did not have any tattoos associated with her profiles. If you know that the missing person did have tattoos, then please post a remark at the end of this blog post on the matter.

Crystal Ann Fox, a missing person, was last heard from on December 11th, 2008 when she was 29 years old. Her vehicle was found on December 30th, 2008 but it's not clear if she was seen that day. I do see some posters for her stating that she was last seen on December 30th, 2008, however, I think that was simply the date that her vehicle was found. Of course, it could have been there for a number of days before that point.

The exact parking lot may have been the Alexander Avenue lot by Vista Point. That would place the vehicle on the north side of the Golden Gate Bridge.

This individual has now been missing for about 13 years as of the original publication date of this blog post. She had the following distinctive characteristics: 'Left eye and tongue-multiple ear piercings.'

The circumstances preceding and after her disappearance are as follows:
  • She lost her job.
  • She ended a relationship.
  • She sold her possessions.
  • Her car was found near a bridge.
  • She has never been heard from since.
Given the vehicle's proximity to the Golden Gate Bridge, that bridge's reputation as a known hot-spot for suicide, and that she may have been despondent, the possibility of suicide cannot be discounted in my view. However, there are nature trails in that area as well.

There is a chance that she might be in the Jane Doe databases. If that is true, then her piercings may not identify her. Any bone injuries that this individual had or surgical implants (ie. a metal plate) may help with this case if anyone knows her medical history.

If these kinds of mysteries intrigue you, then you can find more like them at Websleuths.com.

Popular Tag: "Car Found Person Missing" is a popular tag for this site. It describes a missing person who either owned or was using a vehicle at the time of his/her disappearance. The vehicle is found but the person is not. Click the hashtag at the bottom of this blog post to see just how many times this pattern is present in missing person cases. 

Author: @UncoolNegated on Twitter
All articles are subject to editing after the original posting.
@UncoolNegated on Twitter is not a Private Investigator, however, he is currently studying to be one as of March 2021.
If you like this blog, then you can join the affiliated Facebook group: MPC Facebook Group
Website hashtag: #MPCSL

*For BMI values, I use the UPPER or HIGHER ranges that are given for height and weight.
**Text might be paraphrased. If taken verbatim, then grammar or spelling errors are not necessarily corrected from original sources.
Disclaimer: Whenever possible, government sources are preferred for getting the details of a missing persons case. However, any source that the article writer deems reputable may be used.

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Mae W. Gebhard, Missing Person -- ATTEMPT TO MATCH to Jane Doe

Author: Shane Lambert

Mae W. Gebhard has been missing since February 24th, 1981. Coincidentally, that's precisely 40 years prior to the date of this article's publication. I think there's a Jane Doe in the NamUs database that is a good candidate for comparison. This is an opinion that other members of Websleuths are aligned with. Importantly, neither the Jane Doe in question nor Mae W. Gebhard have any rule-outs listed.

Gebhard's disappearance was covered in The San Francisco Examiner. On March 5th, 1981 I found news coverage of her disappearance. It said that she disappeared after a fight with her husband, that she left with 30 sleeping pills, no coat, and no money.

Thu, Mar 5, 1981 – 21 · The San Francisco Examiner (San Francisco, California) · Newspapers.com

According to the profile NamUs #MP17556, Mae W. Gebhard's disappearance had the following details:

  • She was 65 years old when she went missing
  • She was last seen on February 24th, 1981
  • She is missing from San Francisco, California
  • She was 5'3" and 100 to 104 pounds
  • She was white/caucasian
  • Her hair was gray or partially gray and short to medium length
Everything listed above matches up to a Jane Doe that was found on March 2nd, 1981 at the dump that serviced the San Francisco area. NamUs #UP77595, which is a Jane Doe of which only the head was recovered, has the following details:
  • Estimated to be between 55 and 70 years old
    • CORROBORATES Mae W. Gebhard, who was 65 years old when she disappeared
  • Estimated year of death 1981
    • CORROBORATES the year that Mae. W. Gebhard disappeared
  • Remains found March 2nd, 1981
    • CORROBORATES the time frame -- the decedent was found after Mae Gebhard disappeared
  • Remains were found at a part of the Shoreline landfill garbage dumping area among refuse that appeared to be from the San Francisco County area
    • CORROBORATES -- Mae Gebhard went missing from San Francisco and there is a suggestion that the Jane Doe may have come from there
  • Gray or partially gray hair that was medium length
    • CORROBORATES -- hair length of Mae Gebhard is thought to be medium and gray/partially gray

The Jane Doe may have been dead for two weeks. It's here that someone might point out a discrepancy. However, decomposition rates vary with the temperature of the environment one major factor. Estimates of a date of death are nowhere near foolproof. I'm thinking that her remains being in a landfill site would serve to make her environment hotter.

Comparing Mae W. Gebhard and Jane Doe: Key Similarities

Characteristic Mae W. Gebhard (NamUs #MP17556) Jane Doe (NamUs #UP77595) Match?
Age 65 years old Estimated 55–70 years old Yes
Date Last seen Feb 24, 1981 Found Mar 2, 1981; Est. death 1981 Yes
Location Missing from San Francisco, CA Found in landfill with San Francisco refuse Yes
Hair Gray/partially gray, short to medium Gray/partially gray, medium length Yes
Height/Weight 5'3", 100–104 lbs Not available (head only) N/A

Artificial Intelligence Weighs on the Chances of the Match


Given these striking similarities, the likelihood of Mae W. Gebhard and this Jane Doe being the same person appears significant. Grok, an AI developed by xAI, analyzed the details presented here and estimated a 70–80% chance of a match, citing the alignment in age, hair, location, and timing, tempered only by the uncertain decomposition timeline. This percentage could change with more information being factored in. 

Without forensic confirmation like DNA, it’s not definitive, but the overlap is compelling enough to warrant serious investigation, according to AI. This is one of those cases where the match seems so plausible that if they are not one and the same, then they need to be listed as rule-outs of one another. Without that, I think that amateur investigators will continue to associate the cases.


Chelsea Anne Rasmussen -- Missing Since February 2020

Note: As of March 31st, 2025, I can no longer find this person's case on NamUs. That could mean there is news ahead for her case. 

Missing person: Chelsea Anne Rasmussen
Aliases: Leslie Widley, Leilani Guiterrez, Meredith Boone, Corrine Harst
Last-contact date: February 19th, 2020; other sources say earlier date (see poster)
Disappeared from: Dublin, California


Link to Government Source: NamUs #MP77668
NamUs description: "Chelsea was last known to be in Dublin, California on February 19, 2020. She is known to spend time in Dublin, Rohnert Park, Pacifica and San Francisco and may be living a transient lifestyle and in need of medical attention."


Ethnicity/Race
: White
Sex: Female
Age at time of disappearance: 31 years old
Hair: Brown; called pink by one source
Eye color: Hazel; may wear glasses or have contact lenses
Height and weight at the time of disappearance: 5'6" and 120 to 135 pounds
Tattoos: woman's head on each hand, red hibiscus flower on her foot, a green-skull on her shoulder, angel wings on her back, sun face on her lower abdomen; possibly more.



This was not a case where I was able to find much information on the missing person. I didn't find a news article online or in the newspaper archives at Newspapers.com. There seemed to be some people active in social media looking for her, however, I did not find a proper Facebook group. If you want to read a conversation about this missing person, then go to this link: exits to Facebook.

There were some contradictions with this missing person's information. Specifically, her poster claims that she has been missing since December 2019. However, her NamUs profile specifies a different date. Whenever I come across a situation where details are contradicting, it makes me think that no one is really taking charge of the effort.

It's not really clear who exactly is the last verified person to see her and where. The poster above says she was last seen in the San Francisco area and Tenderloin is mentioned. That is an ominous neighborhood that's well known for crime and antisocial behavior.

AuthorShane Lambert (Facebook profile)
Facebook GroupMissing Person Commentary
Twitter@UncoolNegated (Twitter)
PinterestMissing Person Board
Original Time of Writing: February 15th, 2021

All articles are subject to editing after the original posting.
I am not a Private Investigator, however, I am currently studying to be one as of February 2021.
Website hashtag: #MPCSL

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