The Longer a Person Is Missing, the More Likely It’s Murder
By: Shane Lambert Original Time of Writing: August 22nd, 2025
When someone vanishes, leaving a final message of distress or danger, families and investigators can face a haunting question: did the missing person (MP) die by suicide, or was their life taken? In missing persons cases where evidence points to suicide or murder as the two leading explanations for why the person disappeared, time offers a clue. I propose that the longer a person remains missing, the more probable it is they were murdered. This isn’t absolute but a likelihood driven by the difference in willpower between a deceased person and a killer intent on concealment.
Why Willpower Shapes Missing Persons Cases
In these cases, a distressing final communication—perhaps a cry for help or hint of danger—suggests two scenarios. Suicide implies the person acted alone, their distress leading to a tragic end. Murder involves another’s actions, with the perpetrator hiding their crime. The difference lies in willpower: a suicide victim’s willpower ceases at death, leaving their body where it fell, often near a known location like their home or car. A murderer, however, uses ongoing willpower to conceal the body—burying it, submerging it, or moving it far away—delaying discovery, sometimes for years or generations.
How Time Signals Murder Over Suicide
Time is critical. If a body isn’t found within days or weeks, the probability of murder rises. Suicide victims, lacking post-death willpower, are typically found during initial searches in familiar areas. A killer’s deliberate concealment, driven by the will to evade justice, makes prolonged absence more likely.
Investigative patterns support this: police first search areas tied to the MP’s life, expecting suicide victims nearby. When searches fail, suspicion shifts to homicide, as extended absence suggests the body was moved beyond expected zones.
Addressing Exceptions in Suicide Cases
This isn’t absolute. Some suicides lead to prolonged absence. Individuals may use pre-death willpower to seek privacy in remote locations like forests or mountains, or jump into rivers where currents hide remains. These cases mimic murder’s extended absence but rely on natural factors—water, wildlife, or terrain—rather than a killer’s sustained concealment.
But I do think that a murderer’s calculated steps, like burying or relocating a body, are more likely to thwart investigation long-term than a suicide victim’s final act. When suicide is accompanied by long-term concealment, I think it's due to unlikely circumstances being present.
Implications for Families and Investigations
For families, the uncertainty of these cases is excruciating. My perspective offers a lens, not a definitive answer: prolonged absence increases the likelihood of a killer’s willpower at play. This probability could push investigators to prioritize homicide inquiries sooner, offering families a path to closure. Cases of victims found in hidden graves often reveal a killer’s concealment, unlike suicides, which are typically discovered earlier. While each case demands individual scrutiny, time whispers a truth: the longer someone is missing, the more likely murder is the cause.
I have to say that these pictures do not look like the same person to me. I feel that way even if the black and white photo is from high school and the color photo is up to eight years later. However, there are no notes at NamUs suggesting that they are different people. The details for the case are sparse as well.
Details from a government source (might be paraphrased): Sandra was last seen in Florida on July 2nd, 1984.
Last contact: July 2nd, 1984 (Monday) Last location: Jacksonville, Florida Age when Sandra Faye Thompson disappeared: 26 Date of birth: February 13th, 1958 Sex: Female Height in inches: 65 (approximation, often averaged from ranges) Weight in pounds (lbs): 100 (approximation, often averaged from ranges) BMI: 16.6 - Underweight (calculated to help picture what Sandra might have looked like) Ethnicity: Caucasian Hair color: Black - Straight, thick blackish brown hair Eye Color: Brown Link to Government Source: NamUs(right-click to open)
By: Shane Lambert Original time of writing: March 11th, 2025
Has Sandra Faye Thompson been found?
The Websleuths community has kept Sandra’s case alive, with discussions dating back to 2016, without their activity, there would not be much available online to read about this missing person. There is speculation online about a possible connection to unidentified remains, such as UP116037, covered here at MPC. This is a Jane Doe discovered in Palm Bay, Florida, in January 1985, though no definitive link has been established.
Points Comparing Sandra Faye Thompson to UP116037 (Attempt to Match)
Geographical Proximity: Sandra disappeared from Jacksonville, Florida, while UP116037 was found in Palm Bay, Florida, about 150 miles apart, both within the same state.
Timeline Alignment: Sandra went missing on July 2, 1984, and UP116037 was discovered on January 17, 1985, a gap of roughly 6.5 months, which matches UP116037’s estimated PMI of 6 months. This suggests the unidentified individual may have died around mid-1984, which is almost to the day when Sandra disappeared.
Age Range: Sandra was 26 years old at the time of her disappearance, fitting squarely within UP116037’s estimated age range of 24-28 years.
Height: Sandra’s height was 5'5" (65 inches), slightly above UP116037’s estimated range of 5'2" to 5'4" (62-64 inches), but within a reasonable margin of error for skeletal estimates.
Weight: Sandra weighed 100 lbs, aligning closely with UP116037’s estimated weight of 95-105 lbs, indicating a similar slender build.
Race/Ethnicity: Both Sandra and UP116037 are classified as White/Caucasian, supporting a potential match
Is there some kind of alignment between the UP and the MP in a more abstract way? The body seems to have been a body dump. Somehow, that's consistent with the MP having dangerous associations, as suggested at the Websleuths forum. However, the chart below sticks to more convincing points of comparison.
My AI's Assistant's Guess on the Probability That This is a Match
Mathematical guesses using AI are just food for thought. But they are nice to have because they can eliminate the bias we bring to research efforts as humans. For instance, as a researcher, you sort of want the match to be right and that can affect you. AI doesn't have such wants. The more information that's available, the better but here's what Grok had to say about the chances of these two being one and the same person.
"I’d estimate a 70-75% chance that Sandra Faye Thompson and the Jane Doe are the same person. This reflects a strong likelihood driven by timeline, age, and physical overlap, tempered by the distance between locations and absence of conclusive forensic or circumstantial links. Rounding for simplicity, I’ll settle on 75% as a reasonable mathematical guess, acknowledging it’s an approximation based on available data." (Grok, X's AI)
Basically, the physical characteristics, age, and timeline match, but there is doubt due to distance and a lack of conclusive forensic evidence. Still, I think these two cases need to be looked at
By: Shane Lambert Original Time of Writing: March 4th, 2025
If you don’t know what Grok is, it’s X’s (formerly Twitter’s) artificial intelligence tool. It’s free to a certain extent; however, if you ask too many questions over a certain period, you’ll be prompted with a registration option at a cost. I’m a fan of the tool—in fact, I’m finding it more useful than Google for online research purposes.
I decided to ask Grok what it thought of my website, the one you’re reading right now. Here’s a breakdown of what was said, complete with a “yes” or “no” retort from me.
What Grok Said About What Missing Person Commentary (MPC) Is
Nature: A Blogspot site where Lambert posts about missing persons cases, often referencing sources like NamUs, newspapers, and Unsolved Mysteries episodes. Posts include case summaries, personal theories, and research notes.
I’d say this is fair enough. But I’d add that I do dabble in anything related to crime writing or forensics. For example, I’ve looked at airplane crash documentaries on the website and other topics that aren’t closely related to missing person mysteries.
Author: Lambert describes himself as an enthusiast, not a professional investigator. He mentions taking a Private Investigator course and a Forensic Science course from Nanyang Technological University, but there’s no evidence he’s a licensed expert or affiliated with official organizations.
I describe myself as a Freelance Writer. I’m not sure where they’re getting the “enthusiast” description from, but my headline for the website is “A freelance writer trying to help in missing-person investigations (no professional investigators are associated with the site).”
I think the credentials I have make me a bit more polished than most other freelance writers. Furthermore, I think people who consult blogs don’t mind reading writing—or else what are they expecting?
Lastly, I think Grok is overly impressed by “licensed” experts or “official organizations.” Anyone with a reasonable amount of life experience should have noticed that “licensed” experts with “official organizations” are a mixed bag themselves.
Content: Focuses on lesser-known cases, attempts to match missing persons with unidentified remains, and provides updates or reflections on cold cases. It’s a one-person operation with no apparent team or editorial oversight.
I do NOT focus on lesser-known cases. They are included, but I wouldn’t say they’re the focus. Grok is wrong with the first sentence it wrote there. I consider the probability of traffic when I include a missing person case on my website, and that means selecting well-known cases. I don’t see much point in writing something if no one is going to read it.
Grok is right when it says it’s a “one-person operation with no apparent team or editorial oversight.” I basically proofread my own writing.
Grok’s Evaluation of the Strengths of MPC
Detail-Oriented: Posts often cite specific sources (e.g., NamUs case numbers, newspaper archives), showing effort to ground commentary in verifiable data.
Fair enough.
Niche Focus: Covers cases that might not get mainstream attention, appealing to true crime enthusiasts or those researching specific disappearances.
I do cover cases that “might not get mainstream attention,” but it’s not really the focus.
Transparency: Lambert is upfront about his amateur status and hobbyist approach, which adds some credibility to his intent.
“Amateur status” is a strange term. I have work experience as a writer going back to 2009, and I’ve been in magazines. But I’m not a police officer or a private investigator, so it depends on what they mean. I’d say my research skills are better than most writers. My blog posts do get cited a lot in other forums.
Grok’s Evaluation of the Weaknesses of MPC
Lack of Authority: As a personal blog, it lacks the backing of law enforcement, academic institutions, or established missing persons organizations (e.g., NamUs, NCMEC).
What website does law enforcement back except their own? Academic institutions don’t really care about missing person cases. NamUs is so error-riddled that they require correction, something I do regularly.
Lambert’s conclusions are speculative and not professionally vetted.
It’s kind of redundant. Calling the website “speculative” isn’t the best word. I’d say “conjecture” is better. This could point out that I’ve researched hundreds and hundreds of missing person cases.
Potential Bias: His opinions (e.g., “I think this person died in a fire” or “she disappeared voluntarily”) are presented without forensic or investigative evidence, which could mislead readers seeking facts over theories.
I’d say this is false. The example of the person dying in the fire has to do with the Ricky Jean Bryant case. Actually, my opinion is presented with “investigative evidence.” I researched the original journalism from the days after she disappeared. Her house burned down, and the firefighters who put the blaze out said they heard a child screaming from inside the house as it burned down. I consider professionals like firefighters, professors, bylaw enforcement officers, teachers, judges, lawyers, medical doctors, and similar people to be very reliable eyewitnesses because they know better than to make frivolous statements. So I’d say Grok is just wrong about this.
I don’t think there’s any misleading readers. When you use the phrase “I think” at the start of a sentence, it’s clear someone is offering an opinion—something people do all the time.
Lastly, the notion of a “Potential Bias” in my writing isn’t worth pointing out. Everyone has biases, including Grok. It will contain the biases of the people who program it.
No Peer Review: Unlike official databases or journalistic outlets, there’s no mechanism to ensure accuracy or correct errors.
I don’t see how this makes sense. Peer reviews would be done at other websites, not my own, so why would that be a criticism of MPC? Furthermore, if you look at mainstream media, it’s well-known that they deliberately report things falsely sometimes. I never do this at MPC.
Platform: Hosted on Blogspot, a free blogging platform, which doesn’t inherently signal professionalism or reliability compared to dedicated domains tied to organizations.
This makes no sense, really. Everything, at bottom, is human-run. The articles speak for themselves, not the platform. Honestly, Grok is stupid here.
For Casual Interest: It’s a decent starting point if you enjoy true crime speculation or want a narrative take on obscure cases. Lambert’s enthusiasm and research effort might spark curiosity or highlight overlooked details.
For Reliable Information: It’s not reputable in the sense of being an authoritative or primary source. Without professional credentials, institutional backing, or rigorous fact-checking, it’s best treated as opinion rather than fact.
If you’re assessing it for a specific case or purpose (e.g., a missing person you’re researching), cross-check its claims against NamUs, official reports, or news archives. It’s a labor of love, not a cornerstone of credibility. What do you plan to use it for? That could shift the answer a bit!
The so-called “better” sources are often riddled with errors, many of which I’ve corrected in my research.
Evaluation of Grok’s Evaluation
It’s food for thought, but I think it makes statements that lack depth.
Dumbest YouTubers Who Filmed Their Own Crimes - Infographics Show Breakdown
YouTubers will do anything for views—even film their own crimes. The Infographics Show’s January 2025 publications included a 15-minute video that spills the tea on 10 creators who took it too far.
Unlike their usual long uploads, this one’s short, snappy, and packed with bizarre stories that will make you scoff. Normally, I focus on missing people here, but this detour into YouTube chaos was too good to skip. Curious? Let’s dive into "Dumbest YouTubers Who Filmed Their Own Crimes," released last week!
The bold animation style of The Infographics Show.
Author: The Infographics Show Title: Dumbest YouTubers Who Filmed Their Own Crimes Date: January 11th, 2025
Ever Wonder If YouTube Stunts Are Real?
Have you ever watched a YouTube video and questioned the authenticity of the wild stunts? This Infographics Show episode has you covered. It exposes YouTubers who faked videos—and paid the price. From Target store hoaxes to vigilante schemes gone wrong, here’s a taste of what’s inside.
No. 10: The Target Fort Fiasco
Take this YouTubing couple who claimed they spent the night in a Target store. Spoiler: they didn’t.
Instead, they built a fort out of boxes during the day, hid until closing, then slipped out before 3 AM in February 2022. They re-entered at the opening to fake the “overnight” stunt. Clever? Maybe. Legal? Not quite. It kicks off the countdown with a bang.
March 13th, 2022. The Morning Call
No. 9: Vigilantes for Clout in Japan
What I love about this episode? It’s not just Canada, the USA, or Europe. They dig into Asia too.
At No. 9, four Japanese men staged drug deals, called the cops, and filmed the arrests like innocent bystanders. It worked—until the police noticed the same guys at the second bust. Oops. Dubbed "Vigilantes for Clout Get Arrested," it’s a fresh twist for English-speaking fans of these lists.
This reminded me of vigilante stunts in North America—luring predators online to “bust” them—or even the 2014 Jake Gyllenhaal flick, Nightcrawler.
Ever seen it? It’s about a guy who blurs the line between observer and criminal for fame. Sound familiar?
Down and Out in the Canadian Rockies
A BLEAK GLIMPSE INTO RESORT TOWN LIFE FROM A WORKER'S PERSPECTIVE
Get your copy of this engaging ebook now
Available on Amazon for Kindle or as a physical copy
I’ve barely scratched the surface of this Top 10 list. If public YouTuber antics annoy you, this “revenge” watch will hit the spot. Check out the full episode below—trust me, you won’t believe what’s at No. 1.
Keep Exploring
Loved this? Dig into more of my posts—like my take on missing persons mysteries—or share your thoughts below. What’s the wildest YouTuber stunt you’ve seen?
On May 18th, 1988, "Unsolved Mysteries" aired an original episode. One of the mysteries ("Rhode Island Amnesia") included the murder of Doreen Picard and the assault of Susan Laferte. Laferte, as a surviving witness to the murder, unfortunately, went into a coma from her injuries and could not remember the attack when she came out of it.
More modern versions of the "Unsolved Mysteries" episode indicate that one Raymond Tempest was convicted of the crimes, was sentenced to 85 years in prison, but has since been released. Naturally, that should raise some questions for fans of the television series: why was he convicted, and if his sentence was for so many decades, how is it that he could be released already?
The episode was the 7th "Special Edition" of "Unsolved Mysteries." This was a time period in the show's history when they appeared to be feeling out the ratings. The following preview of the show appeared in the News-Press out of Fort Myers, Florida on May 18th, 1988.
18 May 1988, Wed News-Press (Fort Myers, Florida) Newspapers.com With the newspaper databases I used, Raymond Tempest's name starts to enter journalism related to the crime in June of 1991. The following article is the earliest journalism I found that associated Raymond Tempest with the case.
09 Jun 1991, Sun The Berkshire Eagle (Pittsfield, Massachusetts) Newspapers.com
Later journalism suggested that Raymond Tempest benefited from having family ties involved in law enforcement in the community that Picard was murdered in:
After the vacation of the conviction in July 2015, I did not find any more newspaper coverage. However, there are online news articles as this saga appears to be ongoing even in very modern times.
03 Apr 1998, Fri The News Journal (Wilmington, Delaware) Newspapers.com
Dottie Caylor's disappearance was featured in one of the opening episodes of the "Unsolved Mysteries" television program. According to a Youtube video I watched, it was in the pilot episode. From Wikipedia, it was a special program that was aired before the series became the series that fans grew to love. According to a newspaper article I consulted (The Leaf-Chronicle out of Clarksville, Tennessee), the show aired on November 29th, 1987. If you watched the "Unsolved Mysteries" program and wondered what happened with this case, then this article is for you.
29 Nov 1987, Sun The Leaf-Chronicle (Clarksville, Tennessee) Newspapers.com
Firstly, this individual, as of the time of writing (December 17th, 2021), still has an active missing person's profile with NamUs, America's national database of missing people. Dorothy May Caylor is case number #MP14589. Her profile says that her last date of contact was June 12th, 1985 in Concord, California, which is information that is available in the "Unsolved Mysteries" episode.
I found an article in The Salt Lake Tribune from March 31st, 2004 that Kristen Stewart wrote. The article indicated that Jule Caylor, Dottie's husband, faced some problems when he attempted a career in politics. Ultimately, Jule Caylor withdrew his candidacy for the Utah Legislature (The Salt Lake Tribune/Page 24/April 18th, 2004).
One interesting piece of information in this article is that Jule had "an engagement to another woman six months before Dottie went missing." This wasn't covered in the "Unsolved Mysteries" episode, perhaps because it wasn't known when they made the episode. Furthermore, the Stewart article in the Tribune mentioned an interest in a concrete slab, possibly as a place to look underneath for Caylor. I think the following article is good reading for anyone looking for follow-up information on this case after watching the "Unsolved Mysteries" episode. You can click the article to enlarge it.
31 Mar 2004, Wed The Salt Lake Tribune (Salt Lake City, Utah) Newspapers.com
I didn't find any journalism after 2004 with the sources I use. However, based on the fact that Dottie still has a missing person profile with NamUs, it's clear that she is yet to be found.
The missing person case of Christi Jo Nichols was profiled in the hit television show "Unsolved Mysteries" back in 1988. Christi Jo Nichols, as presented in the show, was a mother who disappeared from Gothenburg, Nebraska while contemplating a divorce from her physically abusive husband.
If you watched the episode online and are wondering what happened with the case, then this article is for you.
In the episode of "Unsolved Mysteries," the husband, Mark Nichols, claimed that he awoke one morning and saw that Christi wasn't beside him in bed. His side of the story is not presented as particularly credible in the episode.
This was Season 1 of the series and Episode 6 of that season, according to my research on the show. It originally aired on November 16th, 1988. The episode had the following synopsis in the November 16th, 1988 edition of The Evening Sun in Baltimore Maryland:
Unsolved Mysteries. Season 1. Episode 6. 16 Nov 1988, Wed The Evening Sun (Baltimore, Maryland) Newspapers.com
Christi Jo Nichols went missing on December 10th, 1987. She was 22 years old at the time. The first instance of journalism I found on the case was dated February 8th, 1988 in the Lincoln Star Journal (page 9). Much of this article is based on information from that newspaper source.
Mark Nichols is cited in the article.
08 Feb 1988, Mon Lincoln Journal Star (Lincoln, Nebraska) Newspapers.com
According to the journalism that I reviewed, this case was not solved as of October 29th, 2006. I found an article in the Lincoln Journal Star for that date where she was included among the cold cases for the state of Nebraska.
29 Oct 2006, Sun Lincoln Journal Star (Lincoln, Nebraska) Newspapers.com
Here are some interesting details that weren't covered in the Unsolved Mysteries episode, probably because they weren't known at the time. Firstly, Christi's "blood was found in the trunk of her husband's car and on the floor of their bedroom" (Lincoln Journal Star/Page 1/August 24th, 2003). However, there wasn't enough blood to build a murder case. Mark Nichols said that a drop of blood found in the bedroom was menstrual blood, however, "tests proved" that it was not.
There was also some lye stolen from a local farm at about the time of her disappearance. Lye is a substance that can be used to destroy human remains (Lincoln Journal Star/Page 1/August 24th, 2003). Whether this theft should be connected to the case is not clear. Also, Mark Nichols divorced Christi Jo Nichols in April 1990, claiming that he and the three children were abandoned.
24 Aug 2003, Sun Lincoln Journal Star (Lincoln, Nebraska) Newspapers.com
The "Unsolved Mysteries" episode covered the discovery of Christi's luggage. The luggage and other items were found "at a rest stop near Maxwell in March 1988." Furthermore, if Christi left on her own volition, then there is a question as to why she didn't take her paycheque, her tips from her job, or his driver's license.
There is journalism that suggests that there may have been another man in Christi's life. However, this man was ruled out as a suspect.
The babysitter that is in the "Unsolved Mysteries" episode claimed in the 2003 Lincoln Star Journal article that she had not been questioned in the case since 1988.
At the time of writing (December 17th, 2021), this missing person case was still unsolved. Christi Jo Nichols has an active profile at NamUs, where she is #MP4677. You can click the link to exit to her NamUs profile if you want further updates. If the profile is still active, it would strongly suggest that the case has not been solved.
The fourth episode of Season 1 of Forensic Files is a little different than most cases in the series. This episode focused on two related murders in Great Britain, while most of the episodes in the series focused on the United States. In "The Footpath Murders" we see the origination of DNA profiles as they pertained to both exonerations and convictions.
Peter Thomas' Opening Monologue: "On a deserted footpath early on the morning of November 22nd, 1983, a hospital worker witnessed a terrible sight."
In November 1983, a 15-year old girl named Lynda Mann was walking on a public footpath in England when she was attacked, raped, and murdered. About three years later, another 15-year old girl, this one named Dawn Ashworth, used a footpath in the same area. She likewise was attacked, raped, and murdered.
Sun, Aug 3, 1986 – 1 · The Observer (London, Greater London, England) · Newspapers.comIn the aftermath, police were able to obtain a confession from a man named Richard Buckland in the murder of the second individual. However, police were shocked when the DNA that was taken from the crime scene was that not of Buckland's. What resulted was a renewed manhunt.
If you watch this episode of Forensic Files, then you can expect to encounter the following forensic-related terms or phrases that are related to the topic of crime-scene investigation:
Semen sample
Blood-type match
Enzyme profile
RFLP (restriction fragment length polymorphism)
DNA
electrophoresis
radioactive dye
electrophoretic gel
ultraviolet light
autoradiogram
x-ray film
Furthermore, "The Footpath Murders" contains the following phrases that students of forensics should familiarize themselves with.
Funeral surveillance by police
Issuing a victim's poster
Advice to the community
Witness statements that produce a lead
The suspect knows more than he should
Confession to a crime one didn't commit\
Genetic dragnet
DNA fraud -- giving a DNA sample under a false name
conspiracy to pervert justice
Alec Jeffreys
Sun, May 14, 1989 – 36 · The Observer (London, Greater London, England) · Newspapers.com
This was an interesting episode because we get a great indication of how justice worked both before DNA and after it. As a precedent setter, this is a case that students of forensics have to be familiar with.
Author: Shane Lambert Time of writing: January 14th, 2021
This is a WORK IN PROGRESS for the timeline of Robert Charles Browne, a self-professed serial killer. Although he stated that he killed 49 people, I stuck to the crimes that are conventionally associated with him when constructing his timeline. Note, that many of the murders that he is mentioned in conjunction with are NOT convictions. However, I decided to include them as food for thought as there are those that are familiar with his life that think he should be considered a suspect in many murders.
If there a date and location that you think should be included, feel free to mention it in the comments. I'll have a look.
If he killed Katherine Jean Hayes, 15 then he was in Coushatta, Louisiana in July 1980.
March 30th, 1983 -- Allegation of Murder
If he hilled Faye Self, then he would have been in Coushatta, Louisiana around March 30th, 1983.
May 28th, 1983 -- Allegation of Murder
If he killed Wanda Faye Hudson then he was in Coushatta, Louisianna on May 28th, 1983.
February 2nd, 1984 -- Allegation of Murder
If he killed Nidia Mendoza, then he would have been in Sugar Land, Texas around February 2nd, 1984.
March 25th, 1984 -- Allegation of Murder
If he killed Melody Ann Bush, then he was in Flatonia, Texas on March 25th, 1984.
November 10th, 1987
Robert Charles Browne pled guilt to the murder of Rocio Delpilar Sperry, 15. He was killed in Colorado on November 10, 1987
September 8th, 1988
Marriage license issued for Robert Charles Browne and Diane Marcia Babbitts. Implies that he is in Colorado Springs, Colorado.
September 25th, 1988
Date of Marriage Certificate. It places him at Woodland Park in Teller County.
September 17th, 1991
Browne can be placed in Black Forest, Colorado outside of Colorado Springs. That's when Heather Dawn Church went missing and he was convicted of her murder. Browne has an address for Brookside Street in Colorado Springs at about this time.
November 3rd, 1991
If he killed Lisa Lowe, then that would place him in Memphis on November 3rd, 1991.
March 28th, 1995
Apprehended and I believe he has been in custody ever since.
Sex: Female Age at time of disappearance: 26 years old Hair: Brown Eye color: Brown Height and weight at the time of disappearance: 4'11" to 5'5" Clothing: Maybe size 3.5 high heels Other: protruding teeth
"On January 3, 1948 twenty-six-year-old Lorraine 'Lee' Judith Barrie Chance took her daughter Donna to a sitter’s house in Santa Cruz, California with the promise of returning later in the evening. There is no record of where she was headed or with whom (if anyone) she departed. Lee never retrieved her daughter and no one has seen or heard from her since.""
Elizabeth Gamblin, at the time of writing, has a fairly new profile at NamUs. The website says that she went missing on June 28th, 2020. Her case was uploaded on December 8th, 2020, making for just over a five-month interval. There are some details to reconcile between two sources on this case.
Firstly, Gamblin's vitals are as follows:
Female
Caucasian
Brown hair
Green eyes
27 years old when she went missing
5'6" to 5'8"
85-95 pounds
For circumstances, NamUs states the following:
"Boyfriend of missing stated Ms. Gamblin left for home on foot headed East on Manship Drive wearing a gray shirt and blue jeans. She stated she was going to a friends house, she did not give the friends name or address. She hasn't been seen or heard from since" <sic>.
The address in Jackson, Mississippi that she went missing from can be taken from another source. The missing person's poster for Gamblin at the Jackson Police Department lists a "missing from" address of 927 Manship Drive. Importantly, this poster states that Gamblin went missing on July 4th, 2020, which would have been Independence Doe. That contradicted NamUs's last seen date of June 28th, 2020. In truth, either time could be erroneous.
This individual was found deceased in San Bernardino on October 16th, 2020.
The picture is taken from NamUs. It is an artist's rendition. At the original time of writing, this was the NamUs description:
"On Friday, 10/16/2020, at 5:07 pm, a 911 call was received reporting an adult Hispanic male transient with a fair complexion in a gutter near the curb in the 900 block of Mill Street, San Bernardino. The San Bernardino County Fire Department and the San Bernardino Police Department responded and confirmed the body deceased at 5:27 pm. There was no identification located on or near the body. The body was approximately 5'10” tall and 217 pounds. The hair on the head was short and brown and the eyes were brown. The face was slightly unshaven. The natural teeth were present. He was wearing a black and white polo shirt and blue shorts."
This is an interesting case to me. There is a description of him as transient and the fact that he was found in a gutter doesn't speak well to affluence.
However, there are some indicators that he wasn't an unhealthy person in all ways. He had short hair which suggests recent grooming, he had only a "slightly unshaven" face which suggests the same thing, he had "natural teeth" which sounds like the authorities are trying to depict him as a well-taken-care-of person, and he had a brand-name shirt which implies that he had at least some modest money. I guess the artist's rendition might obscure things but he looks like a normal citizen to me instead of a homeless person. Also, at 217 pounds the weight for a 5'10" individual is pretty healthy.
Of course, being found in the curb gutter without ID will make anyone think you are transient. Here's a look at a couple of other cases where a John Doe was found in a gutter. I list such cases because I think history repeats itself. What happened in similar cases in the past could be food for thought for the future.
NamUs #UP11460: a white male in San Francisco is found in a gutter on June 15th, 1985. NamUs description says that there were "drag marks in the street leading up to the subject" and that he was wrapped in a blanket.
Was there any clue as to whether the individual was dumped there or died there?
If you are in the San Bernardino area, then please cross-reference this against the cases you know or the ones that come up. My thoughts are that this man might have been someone whose economic life went to crap due to the COVID crisis and became transient or that where he was found was simply where someone left him.
By: Shane Lambert Time of writing: December 9th, 2020 Updating: February 19th, 2025
The mystery of Elisa Lam is perhaps one of the most talked-about mysteries of the last several years. Recently, People.com published an article that revisited the events surrounding her disappearance and death.
The young woman from Vancouver traveled to southern California in 2013, she did touristy things while there, and she ended up dead in the rooftop water tank of a dodgy hotel. How she got into the rooftop water tank has been the subject of much debate and conjecture.
The Elisa Lam Mystery: Dead in a Water Tank at the Cecil Hotel
I've read about this mystery in online forums over the years and I'd like to offer my take on what I think might have happened. This is conjecture -- meaning I am trying to stay reasonable but I will note that we're also dealing with some unknowns. I think my perspective might be helpful because a hotel is central to Elisa Lam's death, I am a former hotel manager, and I've actually been to the hotel where she was last seen. I align my opinion with anyone out there who thinks hotel staff should be looked at in this case.
I stayed at the Cecil Hotel property twice, most recently in 2011 (snipped receipt below). I remember renting a private room that had a shared bathroom. I also remember the hotel as being right on the cusp of wealth and poverty. To the west were the downtown skyscrapers of Los Angeles while Skid Row, literally, was somewhere not far to the hotel's east. This area, to the east, was one I avoided.
Elisa Lam's accommodations at the hotel are important to be aware of when looking at this mystery, in my opinion. Initially, she was assigned to a dormitory room, where numerous guests shared a communal area. However, she had some problems and was moved into a private room. According to the February 2025 article at People.com, Lam had left unfriendly notes with the other guests, her dormmates.
She ended up in a private room and there is something to note there. Broadly, those who comment on this case note what her dormmates called odd behavior on Lam's part. This has been taken to mean that she wasn't mentally well -- and that might have been the case. Lam had a history of mental health problems and medications.
However, what should not be missed is something a lot of hotel staff might tell you. It's here where I think experience working in a hotel is important to have for the case.
Hotel Staff Don't Like Troublesome Guests
When someone behaves oddly in a hotel in a way that affronts others, the hotel staff generally wants the person to be removed from the property. That is true to my experience and I have worked thousands of hotel shifts both in entry-level positions and in management.
It's quite disheartening for the staff when they witness guests misbehaving at a hotel -- and then being rewarded for it. It has become a common practice for managers to pacify disgruntled guests by offering them upgrades or refunds. This approach to dealing with delinquent or rude behavior from a guest tends to frustrate staff who perceive it as a reward for inappropriate behavior. It's simply unfair, from this perspective, that individuals who conduct themselves poorly are granted special treatment and benefits. Perhaps hotel managers do it just to be pragmatic.
In the case of Elisa Lam, her peculiar behavior in the dorm room and the subsequent room change during her stay suggest that she may have been a difficult guest. It is possible that her disruptive conduct earned her a more comfortable room, possibly even at no additional cost. Such preferential treatment, based on her offensive behavior, might have attracted unwanted attention from a member of staff who saw that as unjust.
Last Footage of Elisa Lam
The last glimpse we have of Elisa at the Cecil Hotel is the notorious elevator video—well, the last glimpse of her when she was still breathing. In this video, Elisa's actions seem rather peculiar. She hops into the elevator, frantically presses buttons, appears to be plagued by the fear of being pursued, repeatedly steps out and back in, and bizarrely flails her arms about but without any apparent cause. Some speculate that this peculiar behavior may be attributed to her being under the influence of drugs. However, for the sake of argument, let's entertain the notion that her actions were indeed rational.
From this perspective -- that she's acting reasonably and rationally -- it would then be plausible that she's seeking refuge in the elevator corner and cautiously peering outside to evade a stalker. Those who dismiss this possibility in favor of more imaginative theories mustn't overlook the glaring truth: this young woman tragically lost her life soon after this video. It therefore shouldn't be considered far-fetched to consider the existence of an adversary in her final known moments.
It's worth noting that the elevator stubbornly refuses to budge, no matter how many times the buttons are pressed. This is something that those who attribute Lam's death to her mental vices need to explain. That is, if she was not mentally well, then how does her mental state transcend into the physical realm and prevent the elevator from moving? Is it just bad luck that the elevator malfunctioned at a time when she was having a mental lapse? I would suggest something different, keeping in line with the assumption I've made that she was behaving rationally.
Perhaps Lam held onto the belief that the elevator functioned based on some sort of sensor system that simply hadn't been activated. Perhaps she clung to the hope that stepping out and back in would revive its functionality. If so then her behavior could be understood as rational, not drug-influenced. She's dealing with cause and effect in a way that a healthy person might: she thinks she needs to trigger the elevator doors with her movements.
Basically, concerning some of her behaviors in the elevator, I align my opinion with people who think she is trying to get the elevator to start working. I also think she is worried about someone who is genuinely pursuing her.
Hotel Elevators Can Often be Locked in Place
There are questions surrounding the elevator: specifically, why didn't it change floors? As stated, this could not be caused by Lam's mental problems. It could, however, be caused by a stalker so I think that the elevator wouldn't change floors is a point in the latter's theory favor.
During my extensive experience in the hotel industry, I have encountered various instances where staff members have been able to restrict a hotel's elevator movements. This feature is valuable in situations where items are accidentally dropped down the elevator shaft. However, restricting an elevator's ability to change floors is used during maintenance operations or even, fairly commonly, when housekeeping needs a lot of time to unload supplies. The ability to lock an elevator's movement to a specific floor is a common enough feature of hotel operations. This feature could be available to individuals at all levels of a hotel.
When it comes to housekeeping, I will elaborate on how a locked-in elevator helps. Housekeepers often have housekeeping carts. They often take them into the elevators and then they can offload the supplies that are meant for that floor for the day. During this offloading process, they don't want the elevator to change floors with their carts inside so they lock the elevator into position for a few minutes. This can be done with a simple key that looks like the kind of key one uses on a kryptonite bike lock.
If the Cecil Hotel elevator was the kind of elevator that could be locked into a floor, then anyone who had access to that could be questioned on the matter. This function of the elevator needs to be questioned in this case.
Elisa Lam: Hotel Employee Stalker Theory
The videos of Elisa Lam in the elevator went viral. Yet, the existence of the camera in the elevator could be a clue that's been overlooked. Imagine the following scenario.
A hotel staff member doesn't like Elisa Lam. He (or, I guess, she) thinks she is kind of snotty and is mad that her behavior at the hotel, which he regards as obnoxious, led to her getting a free upgrade.
This staff member has access to what's called an In-house Rooming List. This is simply a report of all rooms that are occupied at any time in a hotel. Anyone who works at a hotel can have a legitimate reason to access this report. All hotels will have this report in their software, even if it goes by another name. With this report, a staff member would know if Elisa Lam was isolated or, at least, not totally surrounded by other guests. A staff member who didn't like Elisa could use this report to plan an attack.
Elisa Lam was upgraded to a private room. However, she might still have had an exterior/shared bathroom. I think this is a question that has not been answered. When I stayed at this hotel, I stayed in a private room but my bathroom was shared. If you knew where Elisa was, like a staff member would, then you could lay in wait for her. If her bathroom wasn't ensuite, it would just be a matter of time before she would have to exit her room.
The camera in the elevator is very important in my view, not just because of the video it captured. The camera itself is something that hotel staff would know about. I know where the cameras are in the hotel I work at because it's my job to watch the footage.
If someone who worked at the hotel was harassing Elisa with plans to harm her, then the elevator would be off-limits to him: he would know that the camera was there. If she went to the elevator and it was locked (maybe by her stalker) so it couldn't change floors then, it's just a waiting game for her to come to the stairs. Maybe this person could count on other guests not entering the picture because of familiarity with the In-House Rooming List.
Those stairs are important too. Doors that led up to the rooftop were locked.
This is where those who think that Elisa Lam was mental and drowned herself on the rooftop have something to explain: how do her mental problems allow her to pass through locked doors? You have to say something convenient like maybe they were left unlocked. If you are going to allow yourself that kind of way out, then just say that maybe she had a stalker and likewise be done with it.
Of course, the hotel staff would surely have keys to unlock doors. That's convenient to say for my theory -- and pretty straightforward. I've been on hotel rooftops before. I've had keys to off-limit areas of a hotel on my keychains. I've had master keys that opened all hotel room doors.
When I look at this case as a former hotel employee, I see a guest that the hotel staff probably didn't really like. She ends up dead in an area that only building/hotel staff could get to. In between times, she ends up in an elevator that won't change floors -- perhaps due to hotel staff action and she's acting like she's being chased. Why doesn't her pursuer chase her into the elevator? Simple. He knows the camera is there. There's that rooming list to think of too and the fact that it could opportune a staff member to corner Elisa -- someone who I think would have been sharing a bathroom exterior to her room.
Elisa Lam's Death: The Hotel Questions That Should Be Asked
There are many questions with this case, the least of which have to do with whether Elisa Lam was crazy or not. There's the question of the elevator: could it be locked into place? Did someone manage reservations to isolate Elisa in a part of the hotel? Who could lock the elevator into place if, in fact, that was possible? Who among these people also could access the rooftop? Also, is that person the same one who moved reservations around in the software (if that happened) for seemingly no good reason except maybe to isolate a woman who ended up dead? Did this person have an opinion on her being a problem guest who got a free upgrade? Did this person's username print out an In-house Rooming List at a non-standard time?
There are many questions in this case and no good answers. However, I am not a fan of the people who think that Elisa ended up dead at her own hand because she was mentally gone. That's way too fanciful.
What I would really look at with this case is the reservation management in the time frame leading up to the elevator video. Let's say, for example, that Elisa Lam was in Room 415 (this room number could be arbitrary). If someone was due to arrive in Room 414 but was moved to Room 515 then the reservation log would have that information for all hotel software programs I have used. It would be logging actions by username. I'd look at whether someone might have moved some arrivals around to keep Elisa Lam isolated or as isolated as possible. That would be very interesting indeed and far more rational than the She's-coocoo-for-coco-puffs contingent.
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