Tavia Elizabeth Bailey - Missing Since 1985

Missing Person: Tavia Elizabeth Bailey

Last contact: Inconsistent sources. NamUs says December 31st, 1985 (New Year's Eve 1985) which seemed the most credible. Other dates mentioned were January 23rd, 1986 or even January 24th, 1986. However, I think anyone working on this case should go with the NamUs date of December 31st, 1986.

Pensacola News Journal. December 31st, 2010. Kris Wernowsky.

Last seen: In Pensacola, Florida near Warrington Village. On modern maps, there is a place called Warrington Village Apartments. I wondered if that was where she disappeared from. According to an article from 1981, Warrington Village was near Navy Boulevard. It was a 200-unit complex that offered subsidized rental rates.

Pensacola News Journal. March 17th, 1981. Charlotte Wittwer.

Age when Tavia Bailey disappeared: 15

Sex: Female

Height in inches: 63

Weight in pounds (lbs): 115

Ethnicity: White/Caucasian

Hair color: Blond/Strawberry

Eye Color: Brown

Born: August 3rd, 1970

Scar or distinctive characteristic: Tavia has a scar on her upper lip. Her ears are pierced several times. These are characteristics that can be cross-referenced to any Jane Does from the area.

Details from a government source (might be paraphrased): Tavia was last seen on December 31st, 1985. According to reporting, she never came home from a New Year's Eve party on that night.

Link to government source: https://www.namus.gov/MissingPersons/Case#/5815?nav

Commentary and Research

By: Shane Lambert

Tavia Elizabeth Bailey was last seen in Pensacola, Florida. Her disappearance date is December 31st, 1985, which was New Year's Eve. However, some reporters mentioned a date of January 23rd, 1986.

The first instance of newspaper coverage that I found regarding her case was a short profile of her on October 25th, 1986 in Florida Today newspaper. It was in the classified advertisement section of the newspaper. The advertisement is snipped below. You can note the different last-seen dates, however, I think December 31st, 1985 should be assumed. Readers or anyone working on this case should note that the profile called her appearance an "abduction."

Her case was also mentioned in the Pensacola News Journal on March 20th, 1989. This article looks at several cases and not just Tavia's. In the newspaper article, she is a called a "chronic runaway," having ran away for the first time when she was 12 years old. She had a history of contacting her family even when she ran away. I also found journalism that described her as a victim of sexual abuse as an eight-year-old. She was in therapy at times, she used drugs, and was in and out of group homes.

Pensacola News Journal. March 20th, 1989.

Has Tavia Elizabeth Bailey been found?

This piece of journalism said that they had no evidence in the missing persons case. I did wonder why she was called abducted in the classified ad from 1986. That designation would suggest that someone knew something. However, my guess was that this was an assumption.

This was a case where there were contradictions on the date that the person went missing. Some of the journalism said that she went missing on January 23rd or 24th in 1986. Meanwhile, NamUs has a date of December 31st, 1985. Tavia was mentioned on September 9th, 2014 in the Pensacola News Journal. Kevin Robinson stated that she "never came home from a New Year's Eve party in 1985."

Tavia Elizabeth Bailey -- Missing After a Party

What stands out with this case is that she attended a party and has not been seen since. I think New Year's Eve is one of the biggest party nights of the year. These parties that teenagers attend could have lurkers and stalkers. That is the assumption that I brought to this missing person's case when I saw that she disappeared after a party on New Year's Eve.

    

A woman going missing after attending a party is somewhat reoccurring among the cases that I have profiled. Melanie Jo Melanson went missing after attending a party. Alexis Scott attended a house party and has not been seen since.

In the case of Tavia Elizabeth Bailey, I think that her habit of running away should be downplayed as the reason for her disappearance because she attended a party before disappearing. I would presume that the following risk factors were instead in play:

• She was in an environment where there were presumably drugs and alcohol;
• She was in an environment where there were presumably young men or even older ones looking for sex;
• She was out in public presumably late as most the focus of a New Year's Eve party is the midnight hour;
• If she attempted to go home after the party, then she would be vulnerable during her late-night walking route, especially if anyone at the party stalked her. By modern maps, the walk would be over two hours so it would have taken some time even if she used public transit (Bailey lived on Sunbury Drive near Crescent Lake). Furthermore, she went missing from Warrington Village, which was subsidized housing. That implies a very dodgy area, in my opinion.

I think anyone looking at this case could look at a Jane Doe with a scar on her upper lip and ear piercings. Also, anyone who was known to attend the party could be re-examined after all of these years to see if any kind of criminal record developed.

Melanie Jo Melanson -- Missing Since October 1989

Author: Shane Lambert (link opens to my Facebook profile)
Twitter: @UncoolNegated (link to Twitter)
Pinterest: Missing Person Board
Original Time of Writing: February 3rd, 2021

All articles are subject to editing after the original posting.

I am not a Private Investigator, however, I am currently studying to be one as of February 2021.

Missing person: Melanie Jo Melanson
Last-contact date: October 27th, 1989 (Friday) late at night or early hours of October 28th, 1989
Disappeared from: Woburn, Massachusetts; last seen near the banks of Aberjona River in an area near Hill Street, off Montvale Avenue and a block off I-93.

Link to Government Source: #MP6393

Other Source: Charley Project

Ethnicity/Race: White
Sex: Female
Age at time of disappearance: 14 years old
Hair: Blonde/strawberry
Eye color: Blue
Height and weight at the time of disappearance: 5'3" and 105 pounds
Teeth: braces

Other: pierced ears

 

The case of Melanie Melanson, a one-time freshman at Woburn High School, is one that police had some optimism about in the years after she disappeared. That seemed to continue right up until about 2012. Melanie went to a party in an industrial area that was wooded and was not seen again. Charley Project offered this description: 

"Melanie was last seen on the evening of October 27, 1989, at a party at an industrial park near the Woburn/Stoneham line, about a mile from her home in Woburn, Massachusetts."

I didn't find any news journalism coverage from the time of her disappearance. That doesn't mean it isn't out there, however, it wasn't in the database I searched. On that matter, I had more success with "Melanie Melanson" than "Melanie Jo Melanson."

The following snip is from September 11th, 1994. It quotes Police Chief Philip Mahoney at that time, regarding the Melanson case:

Sun, Sep 11, 1994 – 60 · The Boston Globe (Boston, Massachusetts) · Newspapers.com

The same article said that they got some information six months after she disappeared that indicated "she had been killed." At some points, there was speculation that she was a runaway. However, I think that should be considered an extremely peripheral possibility now that 32 years have passed.

One of the better articles I read regarding Melanie's disappearance was written by Yvonne Abraham in the May 6th, 2009 Boston Globe (B1). It made the following points:

• she was last seen in a wooded area near "an unlovely industrial park" attending a teenage party that involved alcohol and drugs
• there were about a dozen people at the party
• the night seems to end with Melanie and two boys remaining at the party; these two boys initially said the other was the last to see her alive; of these two boys, one reportedly refused to give Melanie a ride home because he only had one helmet for his motorbike
• dogs and police "recruits" were used for the search

Fri, Sep 25, 2009 – B2 · The Boston Globe (Boston, Massachusetts) · Newspapers.com

There seemed to be a new push in this case around 2009. That's when a bulk of news articles appeared on the topic of Melanie's disappearance. This minor spike in keyword hits lasted until about 2012.

In the November 2nd, 2009 edition of The Boston Globe there was an article that mentioned digging in the area that she was last seen and a promising new lead. However, that was over a decade ago now and nothing seemed to have materialized with regard to where she was last seen. 

One article I read said a tipster suggested that her body may have been moved. That tip would suggest nervousness on the part of someone who knew where her remains were. In cases like this, it's difficult to know what to treat as genuine. If all the tips were true, it would call into question why the body has yet to be found.

On that matter, it may be that finding the remains in a wooded industrial area has proven elusive because of changes in the land over the decades. What someone remembers as the spot of her disappearance might not be off by a large margin several years later at the time of recollection. Furthermore, vegetation may have grown over her buried remains. 

Someone looking at the land might not realize that a patch that was unvegetated in 1989 may now be covered. Noting that missing people are often found not far from where they were last seen despite 'extensive' searches, I would not take anything for granted in this case regarding ground zero. That's especially true given that the original searchers were described as police "recruits," which I'm differentiating from police officers.

The wooded and industrial area of the party seems to be the best place to continue looking. Besides cadaver dogs, which reportedly were used, metal detectors might yield clues.

Additionally, there is a question in my mind as to the possibility that her route home might be more fruitful than where she was last seen. Furthermore, there's the question of the two boys each seemingly deflecting attention to the other. 

One question that's sociological in nature can be asked: what does it mean for an attractive teenage girl to go missing at the end of a party? That she went missing in such a sketchy area might point to local transients who used the wooded/industrial area for habitation.

However, the time frame at the end of a party involving young people might also be the time where romance is in the air. That also brings into play themes of rejection, frustration, and anger. 

The social dynamics that one might speculate as associated with this missing person case are not promising when it comes to the prospects of finding Melanie Jo Melanson alive. There's the 'end of the party' social dynamics to consider in addition to the dangerous area that she may have had to walk home in -- at a dark time of night when she was just 14 years old. In my mind, amateurs or Websleuths trying to find a lead in this case for authorities should not incorporate the age-progression photos into their efforts. Those are useful with teenage runaways but there's only the slightest chance that Melanie Jo Melanson was such, in my view.

The chances of finding Melanie Jo Melanson are redeemed by the fact that this isn't a case where there aren't people working on leads. There is a private investigator that has worked on this case extensively. His name is Michael Garrigan. Furthermore, it has received major newspaper coverage in addition to plenty of efforts from amateurs.

Recommended further reading: Websleuths forum