Tavia Elizabeth Bailey - Missing Since 1985

Missing Person: Tavia Elizabeth Bailey

Last contact: Inconsistent sources. NamUs says December 31st, 1985 (New Year's Eve 1985) which seemed the most credible. Other dates mentioned were January 23rd, 1986 or even January 24th, 1986. However, I think anyone working on this case should go with the NamUs date of December 31st, 1986.

Pensacola News Journal. December 31st, 2010. Kris Wernowsky.

Last seen: In Pensacola, Florida near Warrington Village. On modern maps, there is a place called Warrington Village Apartments. I wondered if that was where she disappeared from. According to an article from 1981, Warrington Village was near Navy Boulevard. It was a 200-unit complex that offered subsidized rental rates.

Pensacola News Journal. March 17th, 1981. Charlotte Wittwer.

Age when Tavia Bailey disappeared: 15

Sex: Female

Height in inches: 63

Weight in pounds (lbs): 115

Ethnicity: White/Caucasian

Hair color: Blond/Strawberry

Eye Color: Brown

Born: August 3rd, 1970

Scar or distinctive characteristic: Tavia has a scar on her upper lip. Her ears are pierced several times. These are characteristics that can be cross-referenced to any Jane Does from the area.

Details from a government source (might be paraphrased): Tavia was last seen on December 31st, 1985. According to reporting, she never came home from a New Year's Eve party on that night.

Link to government source: https://www.namus.gov/MissingPersons/Case#/5815?nav

Commentary and Research

By: Shane Lambert

Tavia Elizabeth Bailey was last seen in Pensacola, Florida. Her disappearance date is December 31st, 1985, which was New Year's Eve. However, some reporters mentioned a date of January 23rd, 1986.

The first instance of newspaper coverage that I found regarding her case was a short profile of her on October 25th, 1986 in Florida Today newspaper. It was in the classified advertisement section of the newspaper. The advertisement is snipped below. You can note the different last-seen dates, however, I think December 31st, 1985 should be assumed. Readers or anyone working on this case should note that the profile called her appearance an "abduction."

Her case was also mentioned in the Pensacola News Journal on March 20th, 1989. This article looks at several cases and not just Tavia's. In the newspaper article, she is a called a "chronic runaway," having ran away for the first time when she was 12 years old. She had a history of contacting her family even when she ran away. I also found journalism that described her as a victim of sexual abuse as an eight-year-old. She was in therapy at times, she used drugs, and was in and out of group homes.

Pensacola News Journal. March 20th, 1989.

Has Tavia Elizabeth Bailey been found?

This piece of journalism said that they had no evidence in the missing persons case. I did wonder why she was called abducted in the classified ad from 1986. That designation would suggest that someone knew something. However, my guess was that this was an assumption.

This was a case where there were contradictions on the date that the person went missing. Some of the journalism said that she went missing on January 23rd or 24th in 1986. Meanwhile, NamUs has a date of December 31st, 1985. Tavia was mentioned on September 9th, 2014 in the Pensacola News Journal. Kevin Robinson stated that she "never came home from a New Year's Eve party in 1985."

Tavia Elizabeth Bailey -- Missing After a Party

What stands out with this case is that she attended a party and has not been seen since. I think New Year's Eve is one of the biggest party nights of the year. These parties that teenagers attend could have lurkers and stalkers. That is the assumption that I brought to this missing person's case when I saw that she disappeared after a party on New Year's Eve.

    

A woman going missing after attending a party is somewhat reoccurring among the cases that I have profiled. Melanie Jo Melanson went missing after attending a party. Alexis Scott attended a house party and has not been seen since.

In the case of Tavia Elizabeth Bailey, I think that her habit of running away should be downplayed as the reason for her disappearance because she attended a party before disappearing. I would presume that the following risk factors were instead in play:

• She was in an environment where there were presumably drugs and alcohol;
• She was in an environment where there were presumably young men or even older ones looking for sex;
• She was out in public presumably late as most the focus of a New Year's Eve party is the midnight hour;
• If she attempted to go home after the party, then she would be vulnerable during her late-night walking route, especially if anyone at the party stalked her. By modern maps, the walk would be over two hours so it would have taken some time even if she used public transit (Bailey lived on Sunbury Drive near Crescent Lake). Furthermore, she went missing from Warrington Village, which was subsidized housing. That implies a very dodgy area, in my opinion.

I think anyone looking at this case could look at a Jane Doe with a scar on her upper lip and ear piercings. Also, anyone who was known to attend the party could be re-examined after all of these years to see if any kind of criminal record developed.

Ryan Shtuka -- Missing in British Columbia Since 2018

Details from Canada's Missing**: 

"On February 17, 2018, Ryan Shtuka was last seen at approximately 2:10 am and was believed to have left a party on Burfield Drive to walk home to his residence located a short distance away in Sun Peaks. Ryan did not attend his job as scheduled later that day and has not been active on social media or his cell phone since."

 

Missing Person: Ryan John Marcus Shtuka
Last-contact date: February 17th, 2018 at 210am (Friday night/Saturday morning)
The area where the MP was last seen: Sun Peaks Village, British Columbia; I think the Google Maps coordinates would be 50.8760120613044, -119.90712891503804 of his last-known location
Link to government source: Canada's Missing

Facebook Group: Missing Ryan Shtuka

---

VITAL DETAILS

Ethnicity: Caucasian
Sex: Male
Age at time of disappearance: 20 years old

Birthdate: between February 18th, 1997 and February 17th, 1998

• The range is calculated using the missing person's age on the date of his disappearance.

Hair: Blonde
Eyes: Brown
Scar: None listed
Height/weight: 5-foot-11 and 154 pounds
BMI*: Ryan John Marcus Shtuka was in the normal range for BMI.
Tattoos: Ryan John Marcus Shtuka did not have any tattoos associated with his profiles. If you know that the missing person did have tattoos, then please post a remark at the end of this blog post on the matter.

Ryan Shtuka Goes Missing from a Ski Resort Town in BC's Interior

Ryan John Marcus Shtuka, a missing person, was last heard from on February 17th, 2018, when he was 20 years old. This individual has now been missing for 7 years as of 2025.

He went missing from a village known as Sun Peaks, which is a popular winter-time tourist attraction due to its numerous ski slopes. This village or small town is located to the northeast of Kamloops, British Columbia. With numerous hotels, the area can have a lot of tourists, bulging the population during the winter.

The Sun Peaks Village area has a mild nightlife. In addition to the ski hill, there is a resort and several hotels at this location. The individuals who work in the town will include a lot of transient young adults who live in staff accommodations.

I worked in Sun Peaks for one ski season as a night clerk at a hotel. I've worked in similar settings in Jasper, Banff, Canmore, and Tofino.

Conjecture on Ryan Shtuka's Disappearance: Theories

How did Ryan disappear? We can run through some scenarios.

A bear attack isn't probable at all in my view. I think they'd be in hibernation at that point in the winter still. A cougar or wolf attack is possible, but these kinds of animals killing human beings are very rare in western Canada.

Furthermore, with any animal attack, there will be evidence. They don't have the mind to cover their tracks. There would be violent signs at the source of the attack, so you would expect to find evidence.

Maybe Ryan was buried in the snow -- the region gets tons. The distance between his home and the house he was partying at was not lengthy. However, it was through a wooded area with a creek. This area was searched over. If he was buried in the snow somewhere, then there's a question as to why he didn't turn up in the spring melt or in any of the years that have since passed.

Whenever someone goes missing, even someone who seems content in life, there is always the possibility of secret depression and suicide. However, the question remains: if he was in the area, why hasn't he turned up? On that matter, he still might turn up if he did die in the area, but there is absolutely no evidence of him there.

Ryan Shtuka: Top Theory on What Happened Explained

To me, that his remains have not been recovered in the area for what is now seven years suggests that he walked on the road toward his home and may have accepted a ride from someone, even just for the short distance. In short, this could be a missing hitchhiker. However, a couple of other possible scenarios should be considered.

When I read the forums, I think something has been lost in this missing person case over time. The early journalism supported the notion of a violent death.

There is an ear-witness (as opposed to an eyewitness) who claimed he heard a commotion that night, which would support an abduction theory. The following is quoted from a November 18th, 2017, article at CBC.ca (writers, Shelley Joyce and Courtney Dickson).

"Jim Reid, who was staying with friends near the house where Shtuka lived on the night the 20-year-old went missing, told CBC he heard an unusual interaction outside in the middle of that night.

'I heard a guy's voice and it was mad,' Reid said.

He said the person he heard was yelling, 'get in the car, get in the f--king car.'

Reid says he reported what he heard to police, but, after they called him back several times, he hasn't heard anything since."

The reason police might stop calling him is simply that they reached the boundaries of what Jim Reid could offer. The same CBC article cites a retired RCMP officer who felt that Ryan was the victim of a homicide after interviewing one of Ryan's friends.

If you are a curious reader looking for a theory that's not shaky, then I would settle on Jim Reid being a credible witness and the retired RCMP officer having some very relevant skills behind his opinion. 

There have been cases where missing people had witnesses, who were originally discounted by some or not given the full gravity they deserved, only for what they said to be authenticated later. The American case of Cleanshindra Hall in 1994 comes to mind. 

If you are discounting what Jim Reid offers, I think you are thinking he is either an attention seeker or what he heard didn't pertain to Ryan. I don't know why someone would settle on that in favor of other theories that seem more improbable to me. I would place the abduction theory in the 90s in terms of percentages.

But Ryan Could Have Been Hit by a Vehicle

If you discount all this, for some reason, then we're left with Ryan walking on a Friday night/Saturday morning at about 210am during the ski season in an area with a lot of partying. This is a town with some drinking and some slippery driving conditions due to a lot of snow.

Assuming he walked down Burfield Drive and was heading toward the main village area, I'd expect a lot of snow to be on the side of the roads he walked on in February. That is several months into the snowing season, and this area gets tons of snow.

Snow on the road would mean less space for pedestrians and vehicles to share. He is walking at a dangerous time of night in a town where, to be frank, there are quite a lot of jackasses among the partying tourists. I worked night shifts in this town, and Saturday nights are usually a little more... energetic, with some strange people around.

I think the time of night and the party-zone atmosphere increase the likelihood of a pedestrian-vehicle accident. Furthermore, Ryan's known clothing was on the darker side: he had black jeans, he had a dark blue jacket, and he wore a maroon cap. The shirt he had was white, but that presumably would have been covered by the jacket.

Even if the jacket was unzipped, anyone approaching from the back would still be seeing all dark clothes. In short, he was not dressed visibly at a time of the week when there were probably some drunk drivers around.

If a drunk driver hits Ryan, then the same driver now has a motive to kill him. If that sounds like an unrealistic scenario, then the definitive answer is that drunk drivers have tried to hide the bodies of people they've run over before:

• 18 years for Texas drunk driver who killed cyclist then tried to hide body

Some people have thought this of Ryan's fate. But I would say the local gossip in Sun Peaks is more toward the former theory, that he had an enemy. Local gossip need not be placed on a pedestal, but when it aligns with other information in the media, it's a little more interesting.

Down and Out in the Canadian Rockies

A BLEAK GLIMPSE INTO RESORT TOWN LIFE FROM A WORKER'S PERSPECTIVE

Get your copy of this engaging ebook now

Available on Amazon for Kindle or as a physical copy

Buy Now (Canada) Buy Now (USA)

Below is the clothing that was associated with Ryan's missing person case at Canada's Missing. If these items are associated with a John Doe in your area, then cross-reference the case details with Ryan's case. While DNA could lead to a match between Ryan and a John Doe, it's still a good idea to try and expedite the matching process.

1. Size 11, flat-bottom sole shoes similar to VANS
2. Black, faded jeans
3. Dark blue winter jacket
4. White/grey shirt, button-up arms, and collar
5. Headphones
6. Maroon, baseball cap worn backward (perhaps as pictured)

But I think this one will be solved when someone who knows something finally decides to come forward.

Author: Shane Lambert (Vancouver, Canada)

All articles are subject to editing after the original posting.

Shane Lambert (Vancouver, Canada) is not a Private Investigator, however, he is currently studying to be one as of March 2021.

Website hashtag: #MPCSL